xAI has yet to release Grok 5, the planned 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model training on the Colossus 2 supercluster, after missing earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets. Trader sentiment reflects repeated timeline slippage, with the company instead shipping rapid interim updates including Grok 4.5 in July, 4.6 in August, and a 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 targeted for September 12 that incorporates SpaceX engineering data for specialized reasoning. This cadence of smaller, frequent frontier-model releases—driven by post-training optimization and competitive positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic—has pushed the larger Grok 5 effort later, with market-implied odds now clustering around late 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include the 4.7 launch outcome and any new details on Colossus scaling or internal benchmarks that could clarify post-training timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,268 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
10%
November 30
21%
December 31
62%
$12,268 Vol.
October 31
$2,412 Vol.
10%
November 30
$736 Vol.
21%
December 31
$4,042 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has yet to release Grok 5, the planned 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model training on the Colossus 2 supercluster, after missing earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets. Trader sentiment reflects repeated timeline slippage, with the company instead shipping rapid interim updates including Grok 4.5 in July, 4.6 in August, and a 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 targeted for September 12 that incorporates SpaceX engineering data for specialized reasoning. This cadence of smaller, frequent frontier-model releases—driven by post-training optimization and competitive positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic—has pushed the larger Grok 5 effort later, with market-implied odds now clustering around late 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include the 4.7 launch outcome and any new details on Colossus scaling or internal benchmarks that could clarify post-training timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$12,268End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI has yet to release Grok 5, the planned 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model training on the Colossus 2 supercluster, after missing earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets. Trader sentiment reflects repeated timeline slippage, with the company instead shipping rapid interim updates including Grok 4.5 in July, 4.6 in August, and a 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 targeted for September 12 that incorporates SpaceX engineering data for specialized reasoning. This cadence of smaller, frequent frontier-model releases—driven by post-training optimization and competitive positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic—has pushed the larger Grok 5 effort later, with market-implied odds now clustering around late 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include the 4.7 launch outcome and any new details on Colossus scaling or internal benchmarks that could clarify post-training timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,268End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI has yet to release Grok 5, the planned 6–10 trillion parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model training on the Colossus 2 supercluster, after missing earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets. Trader sentiment reflects repeated timeline slippage, with the company instead shipping rapid interim updates including Grok 4.5 in July, 4.6 in August, and a 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 targeted for September 12 that incorporates SpaceX engineering data for specialized reasoning. This cadence of smaller, frequent frontier-model releases—driven by post-training optimization and competitive positioning against OpenAI and Anthropic—has pushed the larger Grok 5 effort later, with market-implied odds now clustering around late 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include the 4.7 launch outcome and any new details on Colossus scaling or internal benchmarks that could clarify post-training timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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