Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 17 34.7%
September 12 32.3%
September 15 31.9%
September 18 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
-
September 10
1%
September 11
1%
September 12
32%
September 13
1%
September 14
35%
September 15
32%
September 16
31%
September 17
35%
September 18
32%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
3%
September 23
9%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
1%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
3%
September 17 34.7%
September 12 32.3%
September 15 31.9%
September 18 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$166 Vol.
-
September 10
$202 Vol.
1%
September 11
$205 Vol.
1%
September 12
$550 Vol.
32%
September 13
$322 Vol.
1%
September 14
$205 Vol.
35%
September 15
$257 Vol.
32%
September 16
$215 Vol.
31%
September 17
$215 Vol.
35%
September 18
$411 Vol.
32%
September 19
$530 Vol.
1%
September 20
$505 Vol.
1%
September 21
$505 Vol.
1%
September 22
$345 Vol.
3%
September 23
$572 Vol.
9%
September 24
$345 Vol.
3%
September 25
$505 Vol.
1%
September 26
$505 Vol.
<1%
September 27
$505 Vol.
<1%
September 28
$379 Vol.
1%
September 29
$379 Vol.
1%
September 30
$505 Vol.
1%
No release by September 30
$345 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$8,674End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,674End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” anchors trader expectations around mid-September, with the tight cluster of 30–35% probabilities across September 12–17 reflecting uncertainty over exact rollout timing rather than broader doubt about an imminent launch. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as a meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, intensifying competitive pressure against models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Historical slippage in xAI timelines and the distinction between API availability versus broader platform access create the narrow spread in implied odds, while the absence of any official model card or release notes as of early September keeps resolution dependent on the next verified deployment signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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