Pia Dandiya holds a 72.5% implied probability on Polymarket for the open FL-22 seat because she has maintained a more visible campaign presence and stronger traditional fundraising in the race’s final weeks, while Casey Askar has shown limited public activity despite self-funding advantages. The redrawn district, which shifts westward and leans Republican on 2024 presidential lines, moved forecaster ratings to toss-up status in late October as recent polls showed the candidates essentially tied near 46% each. Dandiya’s primary win and emphasis on local cost issues have aligned with Democratic super PAC support, contributing to trader positioning ahead of the November 3 election.