Brazil’s Senate has received over 100 impeachment requests targeting STF justices, primarily Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations of messages linking him to a banker under investigation, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has repeatedly declined to advance them, consistent with prior terms when dozens of petitions were archived. Removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote under Article 52, a threshold never met for any STF justice since the procedure’s establishment. Current congressional majorities aligned with the executive, combined with procedural filters and Gilmar Mendes rulings raising evidentiary standards, sustain the high barrier through 2026. Trader consensus on “No” at 95.3% reflects these structural safeguards and historical precedent, though October 2026 elections that could alter Senate composition and leadership remain the clearest variable that might reopen proceedings before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$88,177 Vol.
$88,177 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$88,177 Vol.
$88,177 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has received over 100 impeachment requests targeting STF justices, primarily Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations of messages linking him to a banker under investigation, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has repeatedly declined to advance them, consistent with prior terms when dozens of petitions were archived. Removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote under Article 52, a threshold never met for any STF justice since the procedure’s establishment. Current congressional majorities aligned with the executive, combined with procedural filters and Gilmar Mendes rulings raising evidentiary standards, sustain the high barrier through 2026. Trader consensus on “No” at 95.3% reflects these structural safeguards and historical precedent, though October 2026 elections that could alter Senate composition and leadership remain the clearest variable that might reopen proceedings before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$88,177End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has received over 100 impeachment requests targeting STF justices, primarily Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations of messages linking him to a banker under investigation, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has repeatedly declined to advance them, consistent with prior terms when dozens of petitions were archived. Removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote under Article 52, a threshold never met for any STF justice since the procedure’s establishment. Current congressional majorities aligned with the executive, combined with procedural filters and Gilmar Mendes rulings raising evidentiary standards, sustain the high barrier through 2026. Trader consensus on “No” at 95.3% reflects these structural safeguards and historical precedent, though October 2026 elections that could alter Senate composition and leadership remain the clearest variable that might reopen proceedings before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$88,177End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has received over 100 impeachment requests targeting STF justices, primarily Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations of messages linking him to a banker under investigation, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has repeatedly declined to advance them, consistent with prior terms when dozens of petitions were archived. Removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote under Article 52, a threshold never met for any STF justice since the procedure’s establishment. Current congressional majorities aligned with the executive, combined with procedural filters and Gilmar Mendes rulings raising evidentiary standards, sustain the high barrier through 2026. Trader consensus on “No” at 95.3% reflects these structural safeguards and historical precedent, though October 2026 elections that could alter Senate composition and leadership remain the clearest variable that might reopen proceedings before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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