**Elevated partisan mobilization and structural factors have kept expected House turnout clustered tightly around 115-130 million votes.** Strong Democratic enthusiasm in opposition to the Trump administration, evidenced by consistent special-election and primary overperformance plus a sustained generic ballot advantage, supports the upper end of that range, while Republican concerns over base demotivation among lower-propensity voters exert downward pressure. Expanded mail and early voting options since 2020 provide a higher participation floor than pre-2020 midterms, and modestly increased youth registration adds marginal upside. Historical benchmarks—107.7 million votes in 2022 and higher 2018 totals—anchor trader assessments, with the narrow Republican House majority and nationalized contest sustaining engagement without pushing probabilities decisively toward record levels. Late-campaign developments in competitive districts, economic sentiment shifts, or differential get-out-the-vote success could still widen the distribution before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated125-130m 23%
115-120m 20%
120-125m 18%
110-115m 16%
$28,164 Vol.
$28,164 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
1%
85-90m
<1%
90-95m
1%
95-100m
3%
100-105m
6%
105-110m
7%
110-115m
16%
115-120m
20%
120-125m
18%
125-130m
23%
130m+
4%
125-130m 23%
115-120m 20%
120-125m 18%
110-115m 16%
$28,164 Vol.
$28,164 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
$603 Vol.
1%
85-90m
$609 Vol.
<1%
90-95m
$1,723 Vol.
1%
95-100m
$380 Vol.
3%
100-105m
$1,195 Vol.
6%
105-110m
$931 Vol.
7%
110-115m
$4,475 Vol.
16%
115-120m
$4,662 Vol.
20%
120-125m
$8,991 Vol.
18%
125-130m
$3,301 Vol.
23%
130m+
$1,295 Vol.
4%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.**Elevated partisan mobilization and structural factors have kept expected House turnout clustered tightly around 115-130 million votes.** Strong Democratic enthusiasm in opposition to the Trump administration, evidenced by consistent special-election and primary overperformance plus a sustained generic ballot advantage, supports the upper end of that range, while Republican concerns over base demotivation among lower-propensity voters exert downward pressure. Expanded mail and early voting options since 2020 provide a higher participation floor than pre-2020 midterms, and modestly increased youth registration adds marginal upside. Historical benchmarks—107.7 million votes in 2022 and higher 2018 totals—anchor trader assessments, with the narrow Republican House majority and nationalized contest sustaining engagement without pushing probabilities decisively toward record levels. Late-campaign developments in competitive districts, economic sentiment shifts, or differential get-out-the-vote success could still widen the distribution before November 3.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$28,164End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.**Elevated partisan mobilization and structural factors have kept expected House turnout clustered tightly around 115-130 million votes.** Strong Democratic enthusiasm in opposition to the Trump administration, evidenced by consistent special-election and primary overperformance plus a sustained generic ballot advantage, supports the upper end of that range, while Republican concerns over base demotivation among lower-propensity voters exert downward pressure. Expanded mail and early voting options since 2020 provide a higher participation floor than pre-2020 midterms, and modestly increased youth registration adds marginal upside. Historical benchmarks—107.7 million votes in 2022 and higher 2018 totals—anchor trader assessments, with the narrow Republican House majority and nationalized contest sustaining engagement without pushing probabilities decisively toward record levels. Late-campaign developments in competitive districts, economic sentiment shifts, or differential get-out-the-vote success could still widen the distribution before November 3.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$28,164End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated partisan mobilization and structural factors have kept expected House turnout clustered tightly around 115-130 million votes.** Strong Democratic enthusiasm in opposition to the Trump administration, evidenced by consistent special-election and primary overperformance plus a sustained generic ballot advantage, supports the upper end of that range, while Republican concerns over base demotivation among lower-propensity voters exert downward pressure. Expanded mail and early voting options since 2020 provide a higher participation floor than pre-2020 midterms, and modestly increased youth registration adds marginal upside. Historical benchmarks—107.7 million votes in 2022 and higher 2018 totals—anchor trader assessments, with the narrow Republican House majority and nationalized contest sustaining engagement without pushing probabilities decisively toward record levels. Late-campaign developments in competitive districts, economic sentiment shifts, or differential get-out-the-vote success could still widen the distribution before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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