Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella drives the 97.8% implied probability against a U.S. invasion in 2026. The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced a formal military partnership, including a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, U.S. Southern Command engagement, intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, and Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition. Historical precedent of partnership over direct intervention, combined with aligned priorities on narcoterrorism, reinforces trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Realistic shifts could still arise from a sudden diplomatic rupture, failure to deliver measurable drug interdiction results that escalates tensions, or an unforeseen regional crisis involving Venezuela or cross-border groups that alters both governments’ calculations before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
2% probabilidad
$149,550 Vol.
$149,550 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
2% probabilidad
$149,550 Vol.
$149,550 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella drives the 97.8% implied probability against a U.S. invasion in 2026. The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced a formal military partnership, including a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, U.S. Southern Command engagement, intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, and Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition. Historical precedent of partnership over direct intervention, combined with aligned priorities on narcoterrorism, reinforces trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Realistic shifts could still arise from a sudden diplomatic rupture, failure to deliver measurable drug interdiction results that escalates tensions, or an unforeseen regional crisis involving Venezuela or cross-border groups that alters both governments’ calculations before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volumen
$149,550Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella drives the 97.8% implied probability against a U.S. invasion in 2026. The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced a formal military partnership, including a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, U.S. Southern Command engagement, intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, and Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition. Historical precedent of partnership over direct intervention, combined with aligned priorities on narcoterrorism, reinforces trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Realistic shifts could still arise from a sudden diplomatic rupture, failure to deliver measurable drug interdiction results that escalates tensions, or an unforeseen regional crisis involving Venezuela or cross-border groups that alters both governments’ calculations before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$149,550Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella drives the 97.8% implied probability against a U.S. invasion in 2026. The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced a formal military partnership, including a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, U.S. Southern Command engagement, intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, and Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition. Historical precedent of partnership over direct intervention, combined with aligned priorities on narcoterrorism, reinforces trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Realistic shifts could still arise from a sudden diplomatic rupture, failure to deliver measurable drug interdiction results that escalates tensions, or an unforeseen regional crisis involving Venezuela or cross-border groups that alters both governments’ calculations before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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