Québec solidaire maintains several projected safe or leaning seats in Montreal-area ridings under current polling models, including Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, supported by incumbency advantages and localized voter bases. Recent aggregates from Léger and Pallas Data place the party near 10% provincially with modest upward movement, consistent with its 2022 results and by-election gains. Seat forecasts from 338Canada and similar trackers assign QS a high probability of retaining multiple ridings despite competition from the Parti Québécois in some districts. The October 5 election timeline leaves limited scope for a complete reversal across all strongholds. Late-campaign volatility, turnout shifts among younger or urban voters, or unexpected vote consolidation by rivals could narrow margins in marginal seats, though available evidence indicates substantial barriers to QS winning zero seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
96% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
Sí
96% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire maintains several projected safe or leaning seats in Montreal-area ridings under current polling models, including Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, supported by incumbency advantages and localized voter bases. Recent aggregates from Léger and Pallas Data place the party near 10% provincially with modest upward movement, consistent with its 2022 results and by-election gains. Seat forecasts from 338Canada and similar trackers assign QS a high probability of retaining multiple ridings despite competition from the Parti Québécois in some districts. The October 5 election timeline leaves limited scope for a complete reversal across all strongholds. Late-campaign volatility, turnout shifts among younger or urban voters, or unexpected vote consolidation by rivals could narrow margins in marginal seats, though available evidence indicates substantial barriers to QS winning zero seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volumen
$632Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire maintains several projected safe or leaning seats in Montreal-area ridings under current polling models, including Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, supported by incumbency advantages and localized voter bases. Recent aggregates from Léger and Pallas Data place the party near 10% provincially with modest upward movement, consistent with its 2022 results and by-election gains. Seat forecasts from 338Canada and similar trackers assign QS a high probability of retaining multiple ridings despite competition from the Parti Québécois in some districts. The October 5 election timeline leaves limited scope for a complete reversal across all strongholds. Late-campaign volatility, turnout shifts among younger or urban voters, or unexpected vote consolidation by rivals could narrow margins in marginal seats, though available evidence indicates substantial barriers to QS winning zero seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$632Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Québec solidaire maintains several projected safe or leaning seats in Montreal-area ridings under current polling models, including Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, supported by incumbency advantages and localized voter bases. Recent aggregates from Léger and Pallas Data place the party near 10% provincially with modest upward movement, consistent with its 2022 results and by-election gains. Seat forecasts from 338Canada and similar trackers assign QS a high probability of retaining multiple ridings despite competition from the Parti Québécois in some districts. The October 5 election timeline leaves limited scope for a complete reversal across all strongholds. Late-campaign volatility, turnout shifts among younger or urban voters, or unexpected vote consolidation by rivals could narrow margins in marginal seats, though available evidence indicates substantial barriers to QS winning zero seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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