**Saudi Arabia remains the pivotal actor whose normalization would most significantly expand the Abraham Accords, yet Riyadh continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood—a demand that shows no near-term resolution under the current Israeli government.** Other potential candidates, such as Kuwait or additional Gulf states, have seen only speculative diplomatic commentary, including recent remarks from Israel's ambassador to the UAE suggesting possible movement within four to six months, but no formal negotiations or commitments have advanced to the signing stage. Regional security pressures from Iran-backed groups like the Houthis have prompted quiet Israel-Saudi coordination in some areas, and U.S. officials have tied elements like a Saudi nuclear cooperation deal to normalization. However, these efforts have not overcome Saudi Arabia's core political requirements. Upgrades to existing ties, such as enhanced Israel-Morocco embassy and flight arrangements, do not constitute new accessions. With limited time remaining before 2027 and no verified breakthroughs or scheduled accession ceremonies, trader pricing reflects the substantial structural and diplomatic barriers that have kept major expansions stalled since the post-2023 regional conflicts.