**Northeast monsoon dominance and limited tropical moisture are positioning September 2026 rainfall totals well below the long-term average of roughly 288–321 mm.** As of September 10, early-month accumulations stand near 50 mm, with Hong Kong Observatory data and short-range forecasts indicating mostly dry to partly cloudy conditions under easterly to northeasterly flow. A broad low-pressure area expected to form in the South China Sea later in the week may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, yet model consensus points to only modest additional rainfall rather than prolonged heavy events. With roughly two-thirds of the month remaining and no strong signals for an active monsoon trough or typhoon landfall, trader-implied probabilities heavily favor totals under 275 mm. Upcoming 9-day forecasts and any revised tropical cyclone guidance will be the key near-term catalysts that could shift these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Precipitaciones en Hong Kong en septiembre?
¿Precipitaciones en Hong Kong en septiembre?
<275mm 73%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 8.3%
550mm+ 6.0%
$13,749 Vol.
$13,749 Vol.
30 sep 2026
<275mm
73%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
8%
325-350mm
4%
350-375mm
4%
375-400mm
4%
400-450mm
4%
450-500mm
1%
500-550mm
2%
550mm+
6%
<275mm 73%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 8.3%
550mm+ 6.0%
$13,749 Vol.
$13,749 Vol.
30 sep 2026
<275mm
$11,104 Vol.
73%
275-300mm
$400 Vol.
15%
300-325mm
$458 Vol.
8%
325-350mm
$333 Vol.
4%
350-375mm
$220 Vol.
4%
375-400mm
$239 Vol.
4%
400-450mm
$235 Vol.
4%
450-500mm
$260 Vol.
1%
500-550mm
$241 Vol.
2%
550mm+
$258 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northeast monsoon dominance and limited tropical moisture are positioning September 2026 rainfall totals well below the long-term average of roughly 288–321 mm.** As of September 10, early-month accumulations stand near 50 mm, with Hong Kong Observatory data and short-range forecasts indicating mostly dry to partly cloudy conditions under easterly to northeasterly flow. A broad low-pressure area expected to form in the South China Sea later in the week may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, yet model consensus points to only modest additional rainfall rather than prolonged heavy events. With roughly two-thirds of the month remaining and no strong signals for an active monsoon trough or typhoon landfall, trader-implied probabilities heavily favor totals under 275 mm. Upcoming 9-day forecasts and any revised tropical cyclone guidance will be the key near-term catalysts that could shift these odds.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volumen
$13,749Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northeast monsoon dominance and limited tropical moisture are positioning September 2026 rainfall totals well below the long-term average of roughly 288–321 mm.** As of September 10, early-month accumulations stand near 50 mm, with Hong Kong Observatory data and short-range forecasts indicating mostly dry to partly cloudy conditions under easterly to northeasterly flow. A broad low-pressure area expected to form in the South China Sea later in the week may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, yet model consensus points to only modest additional rainfall rather than prolonged heavy events. With roughly two-thirds of the month remaining and no strong signals for an active monsoon trough or typhoon landfall, trader-implied probabilities heavily favor totals under 275 mm. Upcoming 9-day forecasts and any revised tropical cyclone guidance will be the key near-term catalysts that could shift these odds.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,749Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Northeast monsoon dominance and limited tropical moisture are positioning September 2026 rainfall totals well below the long-term average of roughly 288–321 mm.** As of September 10, early-month accumulations stand near 50 mm, with Hong Kong Observatory data and short-range forecasts indicating mostly dry to partly cloudy conditions under easterly to northeasterly flow. A broad low-pressure area expected to form in the South China Sea later in the week may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, yet model consensus points to only modest additional rainfall rather than prolonged heavy events. With roughly two-thirds of the month remaining and no strong signals for an active monsoon trough or typhoon landfall, trader-implied probabilities heavily favor totals under 275 mm. Upcoming 9-day forecasts and any revised tropical cyclone guidance will be the key near-term catalysts that could shift these odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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