Persistent Democratic leads of 5–8 points in generic congressional ballot polls are the primary driver keeping Republican House seat expectations compressed in current trader pricing. With the midterms six weeks away, the typical midterm penalty against the president’s party combines with enthusiasm gaps and economic concerns to favor Democratic pickups in competitive districts, though Republican redistricting gains in several states provide a structural offset. Forecasts from multiple models project Republican totals clustered near or below 210 seats, producing the observed spread across bins below 220. Late shifts in turnout or candidate-specific developments in toss-up races could still widen or narrow the final margin before November voting concludes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
Menos de 190 24%
195-199 16%
190-194 13%
200-204 12.3%
$306,718 Vol.
$306,718 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Menos de 190
24%
190-194
13%
195-199
16%
200-204
12%
205-209
12%
210-214
9%
215-219
6%
220-224
3%
225-229
2%
230+
2%
Menos de 190 24%
195-199 16%
190-194 13%
200-204 12.3%
$306,718 Vol.
$306,718 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Menos de 190
$43,315 Vol.
24%
190-194
$15,558 Vol.
13%
195-199
$34,102 Vol.
16%
200-204
$26,766 Vol.
12%
205-209
$41,753 Vol.
12%
210-214
$16,547 Vol.
9%
215-219
$12,130 Vol.
6%
220-224
$59,810 Vol.
3%
225-229
$25,066 Vol.
2%
230+
$31,671 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent Democratic leads of 5–8 points in generic congressional ballot polls are the primary driver keeping Republican House seat expectations compressed in current trader pricing. With the midterms six weeks away, the typical midterm penalty against the president’s party combines with enthusiasm gaps and economic concerns to favor Democratic pickups in competitive districts, though Republican redistricting gains in several states provide a structural offset. Forecasts from multiple models project Republican totals clustered near or below 210 seats, producing the observed spread across bins below 220. Late shifts in turnout or candidate-specific developments in toss-up races could still widen or narrow the final margin before November voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$306,718Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent Democratic leads of 5–8 points in generic congressional ballot polls are the primary driver keeping Republican House seat expectations compressed in current trader pricing. With the midterms six weeks away, the typical midterm penalty against the president’s party combines with enthusiasm gaps and economic concerns to favor Democratic pickups in competitive districts, though Republican redistricting gains in several states provide a structural offset. Forecasts from multiple models project Republican totals clustered near or below 210 seats, producing the observed spread across bins below 220. Late shifts in turnout or candidate-specific developments in toss-up races could still widen or narrow the final margin before November voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$306,718Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent Democratic leads of 5–8 points in generic congressional ballot polls are the primary driver keeping Republican House seat expectations compressed in current trader pricing. With the midterms six weeks away, the typical midterm penalty against the president’s party combines with enthusiasm gaps and economic concerns to favor Democratic pickups in competitive districts, though Republican redistricting gains in several states provide a structural offset. Forecasts from multiple models project Republican totals clustered near or below 210 seats, producing the observed spread across bins below 220. Late shifts in turnout or candidate-specific developments in toss-up races could still widen or narrow the final margin before November voting concludes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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38%
Sí
¿Tendrán los republicanos entre 47 y 49 escaños en el Senado y entre 193 y 207 escaños en la Cámara después de las elecciones de mitad de mandato de 2026?
33%
Sí
¿Controlará el Partido Demócrata la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones de mitad de mandato de 2026?
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Sí
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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