Cait Conley’s victory in the June Democratic primary has positioned her as the clear frontrunner against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th Congressional District, a toss-up race viewed as pivotal for House control. The district favored Kamala Harris in 2024 and features a substantial Democratic registration edge, bolstering trader consensus around Conley’s 59.5% implied probability. Lawler, unopposed in his primary, maintains advantages in fundraising and incumbency but faces headwinds from the seat’s competitive fundamentals and Democratic momentum. Recent polling has shown mixed results, while attack ads and debate challenges highlight ongoing contrasts over policy records and candidate backgrounds. With the November general election approaching, these factors sustain Conley’s lead in market pricing without decisive shifts in either direction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$14,827 Vol.
$14,827 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Cait Conley (D)
60%
Mike Lawler (R)
41%
$14,827 Vol.
$14,827 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Cait Conley (D)
$6,165 Vol.
60%
Mike Lawler (R)
$8,662 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley’s victory in the June Democratic primary has positioned her as the clear frontrunner against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th Congressional District, a toss-up race viewed as pivotal for House control. The district favored Kamala Harris in 2024 and features a substantial Democratic registration edge, bolstering trader consensus around Conley’s 59.5% implied probability. Lawler, unopposed in his primary, maintains advantages in fundraising and incumbency but faces headwinds from the seat’s competitive fundamentals and Democratic momentum. Recent polling has shown mixed results, while attack ads and debate challenges highlight ongoing contrasts over policy records and candidate backgrounds. With the November general election approaching, these factors sustain Conley’s lead in market pricing without decisive shifts in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$14,827Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley’s victory in the June Democratic primary has positioned her as the clear frontrunner against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th Congressional District, a toss-up race viewed as pivotal for House control. The district favored Kamala Harris in 2024 and features a substantial Democratic registration edge, bolstering trader consensus around Conley’s 59.5% implied probability. Lawler, unopposed in his primary, maintains advantages in fundraising and incumbency but faces headwinds from the seat’s competitive fundamentals and Democratic momentum. Recent polling has shown mixed results, while attack ads and debate challenges highlight ongoing contrasts over policy records and candidate backgrounds. With the November general election approaching, these factors sustain Conley’s lead in market pricing without decisive shifts in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$14,827Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Cait Conley’s victory in the June Democratic primary has positioned her as the clear frontrunner against incumbent Republican Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th Congressional District, a toss-up race viewed as pivotal for House control. The district favored Kamala Harris in 2024 and features a substantial Democratic registration edge, bolstering trader consensus around Conley’s 59.5% implied probability. Lawler, unopposed in his primary, maintains advantages in fundraising and incumbency but faces headwinds from the seat’s competitive fundamentals and Democratic momentum. Recent polling has shown mixed results, while attack ads and debate challenges highlight ongoing contrasts over policy records and candidate backgrounds. With the November general election approaching, these factors sustain Conley’s lead in market pricing without decisive shifts in either direction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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