Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model with 35 billion active parameters in a Mixture-of-Experts architecture, established the baseline for the successor market by highlighting clean training data, no third-party distillation, and competitive results on SWE-Bench Pro and AIME benchmarks. Trader sentiment centers on Microsoft’s push for greater independence from OpenAI through the broader MAI family, with the model currently in public preview on Microsoft Foundry and limited external access via platforms like OpenRouter. No successor has shipped as of mid-September 2026 despite other MAI releases in image and transcription lines, keeping near-term resolution odds sensitive to any developer conference, Azure update, or official Foundry expansion that could qualify as a public successor. Competitive pressure from Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Gemini variants adds urgency to Microsoft’s timeline for improved reasoning capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
30 sep 2026
September 30
25%
December 31
57%
$489 Vol.
September 30
$188 Vol.
25%
December 31
$301 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model with 35 billion active parameters in a Mixture-of-Experts architecture, established the baseline for the successor market by highlighting clean training data, no third-party distillation, and competitive results on SWE-Bench Pro and AIME benchmarks. Trader sentiment centers on Microsoft’s push for greater independence from OpenAI through the broader MAI family, with the model currently in public preview on Microsoft Foundry and limited external access via platforms like OpenRouter. No successor has shipped as of mid-September 2026 despite other MAI releases in image and transcription lines, keeping near-term resolution odds sensitive to any developer conference, Azure update, or official Foundry expansion that could qualify as a public successor. Competitive pressure from Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Gemini variants adds urgency to Microsoft’s timeline for improved reasoning capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volumen
$489Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model with 35 billion active parameters in a Mixture-of-Experts architecture, established the baseline for the successor market by highlighting clean training data, no third-party distillation, and competitive results on SWE-Bench Pro and AIME benchmarks. Trader sentiment centers on Microsoft’s push for greater independence from OpenAI through the broader MAI family, with the model currently in public preview on Microsoft Foundry and limited external access via platforms like OpenRouter. No successor has shipped as of mid-September 2026 despite other MAI releases in image and transcription lines, keeping near-term resolution odds sensitive to any developer conference, Azure update, or official Foundry expansion that could qualify as a public successor. Competitive pressure from Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Gemini variants adds urgency to Microsoft’s timeline for improved reasoning capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$489Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1, its first in-house reasoning model with 35 billion active parameters in a Mixture-of-Experts architecture, established the baseline for the successor market by highlighting clean training data, no third-party distillation, and competitive results on SWE-Bench Pro and AIME benchmarks. Trader sentiment centers on Microsoft’s push for greater independence from OpenAI through the broader MAI family, with the model currently in public preview on Microsoft Foundry and limited external access via platforms like OpenRouter. No successor has shipped as of mid-September 2026 despite other MAI releases in image and transcription lines, keeping near-term resolution odds sensitive to any developer conference, Azure update, or official Foundry expansion that could qualify as a public successor. Competitive pressure from Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Gemini variants adds urgency to Microsoft’s timeline for improved reasoning capabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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