**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 rests primarily on the extreme rarity of such events and the absence of supporting precursors in ongoing global monitoring.** VEI 6 eruptions, which involve at least 10 km³ of ejecta and plumes exceeding 30 km, have occurred roughly once every 50–100 years historically, with the most recent being Pinatubo in 1991. As of September 2026, active systems including Anak Krakatau (recent ash to ~15 km), Kīlauea (effusive fountaining), and Semeru show typical moderate activity tracked by agencies such as the USGS and Indonesia’s PVMBG, without the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or deformation patterns that precede colossal events. With only months remaining in the year, the window for escalation is narrow. An unexpected rapid intensification at a high-threat volcano could still shift odds, though current data offer no indication of that trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Erupción volcánica mayor (VEI ≥6) en 2026?
¿Erupción volcánica mayor (VEI ≥6) en 2026?
Sí
9% probabilidad
$146,452 Vol.
$146,452 Vol.
30 mar 2027
Sí
9% probabilidad
$146,452 Vol.
$146,452 Vol.
30 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 rests primarily on the extreme rarity of such events and the absence of supporting precursors in ongoing global monitoring.** VEI 6 eruptions, which involve at least 10 km³ of ejecta and plumes exceeding 30 km, have occurred roughly once every 50–100 years historically, with the most recent being Pinatubo in 1991. As of September 2026, active systems including Anak Krakatau (recent ash to ~15 km), Kīlauea (effusive fountaining), and Semeru show typical moderate activity tracked by agencies such as the USGS and Indonesia’s PVMBG, without the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or deformation patterns that precede colossal events. With only months remaining in the year, the window for escalation is narrow. An unexpected rapid intensification at a high-threat volcano could still shift odds, though current data offer no indication of that trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$146,452Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 rests primarily on the extreme rarity of such events and the absence of supporting precursors in ongoing global monitoring.** VEI 6 eruptions, which involve at least 10 km³ of ejecta and plumes exceeding 30 km, have occurred roughly once every 50–100 years historically, with the most recent being Pinatubo in 1991. As of September 2026, active systems including Anak Krakatau (recent ash to ~15 km), Kīlauea (effusive fountaining), and Semeru show typical moderate activity tracked by agencies such as the USGS and Indonesia’s PVMBG, without the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or deformation patterns that precede colossal events. With only months remaining in the year, the window for escalation is narrow. An unexpected rapid intensification at a high-threat volcano could still shift odds, though current data offer no indication of that trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$146,452Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 rests primarily on the extreme rarity of such events and the absence of supporting precursors in ongoing global monitoring.** VEI 6 eruptions, which involve at least 10 km³ of ejecta and plumes exceeding 30 km, have occurred roughly once every 50–100 years historically, with the most recent being Pinatubo in 1991. As of September 2026, active systems including Anak Krakatau (recent ash to ~15 km), Kīlauea (effusive fountaining), and Semeru show typical moderate activity tracked by agencies such as the USGS and Indonesia’s PVMBG, without the sustained inflation, seismic swarms, or deformation patterns that precede colossal events. With only months remaining in the year, the window for escalation is narrow. An unexpected rapid intensification at a high-threat volcano could still shift odds, though current data offer no indication of that trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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