Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability against James Comey receiving a prison sentence in 2026 primarily because the pending federal case in the Eastern District of North Carolina faces multiple dismissal motions on First Amendment true-threat grounds and claims of selective or vindictive prosecution. The April 2026 indictment stems from a 2025 Instagram post, with arraignment set for September 30 and trial for October 21; any conviction would likely push sentencing into 2027. An earlier Virginia indictment was dismissed in late 2025 after a judicial finding of improper appointment of the U.S. attorney. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include denial of the motions followed by rapid conviction and sentencing before year-end, or new charges materializing from ongoing investigations, though both face high procedural and evidentiary barriers.