Recent military strikes by Israel and the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites and centrifuges, while the IAEA has lost verification access and continuity of knowledge on Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile. The IAEA board's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for longstanding noncompliance reinforces trader views that a nuclear test before 2027 faces major technical and diplomatic barriers. Surviving underground assets and potential reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain represent the main variables that could alter timelines if Iran regains operational capacity amid unresolved negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
5% probabilidad
$257,360 Vol.
$257,360 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$257,360 Vol.
$257,360 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by Israel and the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites and centrifuges, while the IAEA has lost verification access and continuity of knowledge on Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile. The IAEA board's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for longstanding noncompliance reinforces trader views that a nuclear test before 2027 faces major technical and diplomatic barriers. Surviving underground assets and potential reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain represent the main variables that could alter timelines if Iran regains operational capacity amid unresolved negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$257,360Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by Israel and the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites and centrifuges, while the IAEA has lost verification access and continuity of knowledge on Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile. The IAEA board's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for longstanding noncompliance reinforces trader views that a nuclear test before 2027 faces major technical and diplomatic barriers. Surviving underground assets and potential reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain represent the main variables that could alter timelines if Iran regains operational capacity amid unresolved negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$257,360Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes by Israel and the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites and centrifuges, while the IAEA has lost verification access and continuity of knowledge on Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile. The IAEA board's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for longstanding noncompliance reinforces trader views that a nuclear test before 2027 faces major technical and diplomatic barriers. Surviving underground assets and potential reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain represent the main variables that could alter timelines if Iran regains operational capacity amid unresolved negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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