The December 6, 2026, presidential election occurs under a new constitution approved by referendum in late August that expands presidential authority over cabinet appointments, ministry creation, and parliamentary dissolution while imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement for candidates. The vote follows the November 2025 military coup that annulled disputed 2025 results in which Fernando Dias da Costa and former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló both claimed victory, leading to a transitional military council. Dias da Costa leads trader pricing on the strength of his prior opposition coalition backing and positioning as the main alternative to the ousted incumbent, while Embaló trails amid questions over his post-coup status and party fragmentation. The wide field of low-probability contenders reflects limited consolidation around any single figure, with support likely to shift based on alliances, regional turnout, and the military transition authority's stance on civilian rule.