**Iran has maintained de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since seizing it in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, using the outpost for IRGC naval and missile capabilities that influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.** The UAE and GCC states continue to label the islands occupied territory and push for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, but Iran rejects these claims as inconsistent with historical and legal realities while reaffirming sovereignty through official statements and administrative actions such as land registration. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb amid broader Hormuz-related escalation, degrading operational assets without transferring governmental or military control to another actor. Subsequent Iranian missile deployments and military exercises through early September 2026 have reinforced its position. Diplomatic pressure from the GCC and Arab League has produced repeated statements supporting UAE claims, yet no enforcement mechanism or change in on-ground administration has materialized. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing a shift by late August 2026 at very low implied probability absent major new military developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La Gran Isla Tunb ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
¿La Gran Isla Tunb ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
$55,003 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
1%
$55,003 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$335 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran has maintained de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since seizing it in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, using the outpost for IRGC naval and missile capabilities that influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.** The UAE and GCC states continue to label the islands occupied territory and push for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, but Iran rejects these claims as inconsistent with historical and legal realities while reaffirming sovereignty through official statements and administrative actions such as land registration.
US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb amid broader Hormuz-related escalation, degrading operational assets without transferring governmental or military control to another actor. Subsequent Iranian missile deployments and military exercises through early September 2026 have reinforced its position. Diplomatic pressure from the GCC and Arab League has produced repeated statements supporting UAE claims, yet no enforcement mechanism or change in on-ground administration has materialized. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing a shift by late August 2026 at very low implied probability absent major new military developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volumen
$55,003Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran has maintained de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since seizing it in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, using the outpost for IRGC naval and missile capabilities that influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.** The UAE and GCC states continue to label the islands occupied territory and push for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, but Iran rejects these claims as inconsistent with historical and legal realities while reaffirming sovereignty through official statements and administrative actions such as land registration.
US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb amid broader Hormuz-related escalation, degrading operational assets without transferring governmental or military control to another actor. Subsequent Iranian missile deployments and military exercises through early September 2026 have reinforced its position. Diplomatic pressure from the GCC and Arab League has produced repeated statements supporting UAE claims, yet no enforcement mechanism or change in on-ground administration has materialized. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing a shift by late August 2026 at very low implied probability absent major new military developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$55,003Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran has maintained de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since seizing it in 1971 alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, using the outpost for IRGC naval and missile capabilities that influence shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.** The UAE and GCC states continue to label the islands occupied territory and push for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, but Iran rejects these claims as inconsistent with historical and legal realities while reaffirming sovereignty through official statements and administrative actions such as land registration. US precision strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb amid broader Hormuz-related escalation, degrading operational assets without transferring governmental or military control to another actor. Subsequent Iranian missile deployments and military exercises through early September 2026 have reinforced its position. Diplomatic pressure from the GCC and Arab League has produced repeated statements supporting UAE claims, yet no enforcement mechanism or change in on-ground administration has materialized. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing a shift by late August 2026 at very low implied probability absent major new military developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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