**Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian administrative and military control despite U.S. strikes in mid-July 2026 that targeted IRGC missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure as part of broader Strait of Hormuz operations.** Iran seized the island in 1971 and has maintained garrisons, naval facilities, and air defenses there since, using it to influence shipping lanes. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims inherited from Ras al-Khaimah, backed by periodic GCC and Arab League statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while Iran rejects these positions and has recently deployed additional missile systems and reaffirmed territorial integrity through official Foreign Ministry statements. No ground operations or occupation by another state have occurred, and Iranian forces continue to exercise primary authority. Trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities aligns with the absence of developments that would transfer effective control by near-term resolution dates, though further escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities or major diplomatic shifts could alter the situation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La Gran Isla Tunb ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
¿La Gran Isla Tunb ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
$55,003 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
2%
$55,003 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$335 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian administrative and military control despite U.S. strikes in mid-July 2026 that targeted IRGC missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure as part of broader Strait of Hormuz operations.** Iran seized the island in 1971 and has maintained garrisons, naval facilities, and air defenses there since, using it to influence shipping lanes. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims inherited from Ras al-Khaimah, backed by periodic GCC and Arab League statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while Iran rejects these positions and has recently deployed additional missile systems and reaffirmed territorial integrity through official Foreign Ministry statements. No ground operations or occupation by another state have occurred, and Iranian forces continue to exercise primary authority. Trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities aligns with the absence of developments that would transfer effective control by near-term resolution dates, though further escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities or major diplomatic shifts could alter the situation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volumen
$55,003Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian administrative and military control despite U.S. strikes in mid-July 2026 that targeted IRGC missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure as part of broader Strait of Hormuz operations.** Iran seized the island in 1971 and has maintained garrisons, naval facilities, and air defenses there since, using it to influence shipping lanes. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims inherited from Ras al-Khaimah, backed by periodic GCC and Arab League statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while Iran rejects these positions and has recently deployed additional missile systems and reaffirmed territorial integrity through official Foreign Ministry statements. No ground operations or occupation by another state have occurred, and Iranian forces continue to exercise primary authority. Trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities aligns with the absence of developments that would transfer effective control by near-term resolution dates, though further escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities or major diplomatic shifts could alter the situation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$55,003Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Greater Tunb Island remains under Iranian administrative and military control despite U.S. strikes in mid-July 2026 that targeted IRGC missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure as part of broader Strait of Hormuz operations.** Iran seized the island in 1971 and has maintained garrisons, naval facilities, and air defenses there since, using it to influence shipping lanes. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims inherited from Ras al-Khaimah, backed by periodic GCC and Arab League statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, while Iran rejects these positions and has recently deployed additional missile systems and reaffirmed territorial integrity through official Foreign Ministry statements. No ground operations or occupation by another state have occurred, and Iranian forces continue to exercise primary authority. Trader consensus reflected in low market probabilities aligns with the absence of developments that would transfer effective control by near-term resolution dates, though further escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities or major diplomatic shifts could alter the situation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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