The near-certain trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president through September 30 stems from the absence of any viable removal mechanism that could conclude in the remaining days. The House recently tabled the latest impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement matters by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support and no path to Senate conviction. No active 25th Amendment proceedings or cabinet actions exist, while public reports on the president's health and schedule show continuity rather than acute incapacity. Resignation lacks any supporting statements or institutional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden documented medical event triggering succession or an unforeseen legal development, though both remain outside observed patterns and would require rapid verification to affect the short timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
<1% probabilidad
$1,334,245 Vol.
$1,334,245 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$1,334,245 Vol.
$1,334,245 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president through September 30 stems from the absence of any viable removal mechanism that could conclude in the remaining days. The House recently tabled the latest impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement matters by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support and no path to Senate conviction. No active 25th Amendment proceedings or cabinet actions exist, while public reports on the president's health and schedule show continuity rather than acute incapacity. Resignation lacks any supporting statements or institutional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden documented medical event triggering succession or an unforeseen legal development, though both remain outside observed patterns and would require rapid verification to affect the short timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Volumen
$1,334,245Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certain trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president through September 30 stems from the absence of any viable removal mechanism that could conclude in the remaining days. The House recently tabled the latest impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement matters by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support and no path to Senate conviction. No active 25th Amendment proceedings or cabinet actions exist, while public reports on the president's health and schedule show continuity rather than acute incapacity. Resignation lacks any supporting statements or institutional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden documented medical event triggering succession or an unforeseen legal development, though both remain outside observed patterns and would require rapid verification to affect the short timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,334,245Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president through September 30 stems from the absence of any viable removal mechanism that could conclude in the remaining days. The House recently tabled the latest impeachment resolution on immigration enforcement matters by a 232-147 vote, with limited Democratic support and no path to Senate conviction. No active 25th Amendment proceedings or cabinet actions exist, while public reports on the president's health and schedule show continuity rather than acute incapacity. Resignation lacks any supporting statements or institutional pressure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden documented medical event triggering succession or an unforeseen legal development, though both remain outside observed patterns and would require rapid verification to affect the short timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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