Trump's continued service as president through mid-2026 has produced no verified reports of incapacity or cabinet-level moves to invoke the 25th Amendment, which requires the vice president plus a majority of principal officers or congressional action to certify inability to discharge duties. Republican majorities in Congress and limited public dissent within the administration have reinforced the procedural and political barriers to removal. Traders price the outcome at 96.9 percent against invocation before 2027 because the threshold for success remains exceptionally high absent sudden health developments, formal medical findings, or an unprecedented breakdown in executive-branch support. Late-term shifts in cabinet composition or acute medical events could still alter that assessment before the market resolves.