Doug Ford's position as Progressive Conservative leader remains secure following the party's third consecutive majority victory in the February 2025 Ontario election and successful defense of seats in recent by-elections. Recent polling shows the PCs regaining ground amid trade disputes, while Ford has publicly affirmed plans to seek a fourth term and dismissed comparisons to other leaders facing internal pressure. Minor caucus tensions and cabinet adjustments have surfaced but produced no organized challenge or leadership review ahead of the 2029-2030 election cycle. Traders assign a 95.5% probability that Ford stays through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of viable near-term catalysts for removal. Unexpected developments such as a serious health event or major scandal could still alter this assessment before year-end.