Traders assign a 94.7% probability that no China-Taiwan military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting sustained but contained cross-strait tensions. Beijing has maintained routine gray-zone operations, including aircraft and naval patrols plus drone reconnaissance during Taiwanese drills, without large-scale exercises or amphibious preparations that would signal imminent conflict. PLA fighter-jet sorties near Taiwan reached a multi-year low in the first half of 2026, coinciding with U.S.-China summits that provide diplomatic off-ramps. Taipei has responded with defense modernization and combat-readiness exercises, yet official statements from both sides continue to emphasize deterrence and communication channels over escalation. These patterns indicate trader consensus that structural barriers and ongoing diplomacy make open hostilities unlikely through the end of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
5% probabilidad
$3,426,076 Vol.
$3,426,076 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$3,426,076 Vol.
$3,426,076 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 94.7% probability that no China-Taiwan military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting sustained but contained cross-strait tensions. Beijing has maintained routine gray-zone operations, including aircraft and naval patrols plus drone reconnaissance during Taiwanese drills, without large-scale exercises or amphibious preparations that would signal imminent conflict. PLA fighter-jet sorties near Taiwan reached a multi-year low in the first half of 2026, coinciding with U.S.-China summits that provide diplomatic off-ramps. Taipei has responded with defense modernization and combat-readiness exercises, yet official statements from both sides continue to emphasize deterrence and communication channels over escalation. These patterns indicate trader consensus that structural barriers and ongoing diplomacy make open hostilities unlikely through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volumen
$3,426,076Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 94.7% probability that no China-Taiwan military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting sustained but contained cross-strait tensions. Beijing has maintained routine gray-zone operations, including aircraft and naval patrols plus drone reconnaissance during Taiwanese drills, without large-scale exercises or amphibious preparations that would signal imminent conflict. PLA fighter-jet sorties near Taiwan reached a multi-year low in the first half of 2026, coinciding with U.S.-China summits that provide diplomatic off-ramps. Taipei has responded with defense modernization and combat-readiness exercises, yet official statements from both sides continue to emphasize deterrence and communication channels over escalation. These patterns indicate trader consensus that structural barriers and ongoing diplomacy make open hostilities unlikely through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,426,076Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 94.7% probability that no China-Taiwan military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting sustained but contained cross-strait tensions. Beijing has maintained routine gray-zone operations, including aircraft and naval patrols plus drone reconnaissance during Taiwanese drills, without large-scale exercises or amphibious preparations that would signal imminent conflict. PLA fighter-jet sorties near Taiwan reached a multi-year low in the first half of 2026, coinciding with U.S.-China summits that provide diplomatic off-ramps. Taipei has responded with defense modernization and combat-readiness exercises, yet official statements from both sides continue to emphasize deterrence and communication channels over escalation. These patterns indicate trader consensus that structural barriers and ongoing diplomacy make open hostilities unlikely through the end of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes