Redistricting under Proposition 50 has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, removing prior Republican strongholds and incorporating more favorable areas around Sacramento. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest share and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while Republican Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district where recent presidential results favored Democrats by roughly ten points. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments such as major scandals, health events for the frontrunner, or a sharp national shift could still alter the November general election outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$43,504 Vol.
$43,504 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ami Bera (D)
95%
Robb Tucker (R)
3%
$43,504 Vol.
$43,504 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ami Bera (D)
$25,885 Vol.
95%
Robb Tucker (R)
$17,619 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, removing prior Republican strongholds and incorporating more favorable areas around Sacramento. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest share and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while Republican Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district where recent presidential results favored Democrats by roughly ten points. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments such as major scandals, health events for the frontrunner, or a sharp national shift could still alter the November general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$43,504Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, removing prior Republican strongholds and incorporating more favorable areas around Sacramento. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest share and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while Republican Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district where recent presidential results favored Democrats by roughly ten points. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments such as major scandals, health events for the frontrunner, or a sharp national shift could still alter the November general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$43,504Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, removing prior Republican strongholds and incorporating more favorable areas around Sacramento. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest share and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while Republican Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district where recent presidential results favored Democrats by roughly ten points. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments such as major scandals, health events for the frontrunner, or a sharp national shift could still alter the November general election outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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