Recent national polls show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro holding the top two spots in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, leaving limited but contested space for third. Augusto Cury’s late-August surge from television exposure and anti-polarization messaging lifted him into single digits in several surveys, while Renan Santos maintains steady support among younger and online voters through social-media reach and anti-establishment positioning. Ronaldo Caiado’s established gubernatorial record has not translated into comparable first-round momentum. Trader pricing favoring Santos for third place reflects his consistent polling presence, campaign activity, and perceived ability to consolidate scattered center-right or protest votes ahead of election day, even as aggregates remain tight between the two leading alternatives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRenan Santos 53%
Augusto Cury 32.6%
Ronaldo Caiado 12%
Romeu Zema 1.0%
$1,283,086 Vol.
$1,283,086 Vol.
Renan Santos
53%
Augusto Cury
33%
Ronaldo Caiado
12%
Romeu Zema
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos 53%
Augusto Cury 32.6%
Ronaldo Caiado 12%
Romeu Zema 1.0%
$1,283,086 Vol.
$1,283,086 Vol.
Renan Santos
53%
Augusto Cury
33%
Ronaldo Caiado
12%
Romeu Zema
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national polls show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro holding the top two spots in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, leaving limited but contested space for third. Augusto Cury’s late-August surge from television exposure and anti-polarization messaging lifted him into single digits in several surveys, while Renan Santos maintains steady support among younger and online voters through social-media reach and anti-establishment positioning. Ronaldo Caiado’s established gubernatorial record has not translated into comparable first-round momentum. Trader pricing favoring Santos for third place reflects his consistent polling presence, campaign activity, and perceived ability to consolidate scattered center-right or protest votes ahead of election day, even as aggregates remain tight between the two leading alternatives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Terminará Flávio Bolsonaro en segundo lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
¿Ganará Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2026?
¿Obtendrá Flavio Bolsonaro la mayor cantidad de votos en la próxima elección presidencial de Brasil en el Distrito Federal?
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes