**Recent releases and benchmark updates have shaped trader views on the "Best AI model on September 28" market.** Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5, launched September 22, matches or exceeds Claude Fable 5.1 on agentic coding and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 (66.4% vs. 55.8%) while running at roughly 40% lower cost than prior Opus models. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra simultaneously tops composite leaderboards like BenchAlign at 88.47, narrowly ahead of Opus 5.5. With the resolution date only days away and no further frontier launches imminent, traders assign Fable 5.1-max just 35.5% implied probability, reflecting its strong but non-dominant position relative to the newest Opus variant and OpenAI’s leading model. The 62% “Other” share captures this uncertainty around which system will hold the clearest edge by September 28.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOtro 62%
claude-fable-5.1-max 36%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
28 sep 2026
Otro
62%
claude-fable-5.1-max
36%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
Otro 62%
claude-fable-5.1-max 36%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
28 sep 2026
Otro
$799 Vol.
62%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$452 Vol.
36%
claude-opus-5-high
$137 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-5-max
$144 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$166 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Recent releases and benchmark updates have shaped trader views on the "Best AI model on September 28" market.** Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5, launched September 22, matches or exceeds Claude Fable 5.1 on agentic coding and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 (66.4% vs. 55.8%) while running at roughly 40% lower cost than prior Opus models. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra simultaneously tops composite leaderboards like BenchAlign at 88.47, narrowly ahead of Opus 5.5. With the resolution date only days away and no further frontier launches imminent, traders assign Fable 5.1-max just 35.5% implied probability, reflecting its strong but non-dominant position relative to the newest Opus variant and OpenAI’s leading model. The 62% “Other” share captures this uncertainty around which system will hold the clearest edge by September 28.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Volumen
$1,696Fecha de finalización
28 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Recent releases and benchmark updates have shaped trader views on the "Best AI model on September 28" market.** Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5, launched September 22, matches or exceeds Claude Fable 5.1 on agentic coding and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 (66.4% vs. 55.8%) while running at roughly 40% lower cost than prior Opus models. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra simultaneously tops composite leaderboards like BenchAlign at 88.47, narrowly ahead of Opus 5.5. With the resolution date only days away and no further frontier launches imminent, traders assign Fable 5.1-max just 35.5% implied probability, reflecting its strong but non-dominant position relative to the newest Opus variant and OpenAI’s leading model. The 62% “Other” share captures this uncertainty around which system will hold the clearest edge by September 28.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$1,696Fecha de finalización
28 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...**Recent releases and benchmark updates have shaped trader views on the "Best AI model on September 28" market.** Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5, launched September 22, matches or exceeds Claude Fable 5.1 on agentic coding and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 4.0 (66.4% vs. 55.8%) while running at roughly 40% lower cost than prior Opus models. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra simultaneously tops composite leaderboards like BenchAlign at 88.47, narrowly ahead of Opus 5.5. With the resolution date only days away and no further frontier launches imminent, traders assign Fable 5.1-max just 35.5% implied probability, reflecting its strong but non-dominant position relative to the newest Opus variant and OpenAI’s leading model. The 62% “Other” share captures this uncertainty around which system will hold the clearest edge by September 28.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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