Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 has driven the 69% market-implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max, positioning it as the current leader for agentic coding, multistep research, and long-horizon knowledge work. The model delivers substantial benchmark gains over Fable 5 and outperforms Opus 5 on key evaluations such as Terminal-Bench-Science, while offering lower effective costs through reduced cache-read pricing. Traders assign low single-digit odds to the listed Opus variants because they represent prior generations with narrower context handling and weaker sustained task performance. The 27% on “Other” reflects the short window until September 21 and the possibility of a competitive release or leaderboard shift from another lab before resolution. No major rival announcements have surfaced in the past week to alter this consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-fable-5.1-max 69%
Otro 27%
claude-opus-5-max 2.6%
claude-opus-5-high 2.2%
$10,001 Vol.
$10,001 Vol.
21 sep 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
69%
Otro
27%
claude-opus-5-max
3%
claude-opus-5-high
2%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 69%
Otro 27%
claude-opus-5-max 2.6%
claude-opus-5-high 2.2%
$10,001 Vol.
$10,001 Vol.
21 sep 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$4,390 Vol.
69%
Otro
$4,406 Vol.
27%
claude-opus-5-max
$486 Vol.
3%
claude-opus-5-high
$287 Vol.
2%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$431 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 has driven the 69% market-implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max, positioning it as the current leader for agentic coding, multistep research, and long-horizon knowledge work. The model delivers substantial benchmark gains over Fable 5 and outperforms Opus 5 on key evaluations such as Terminal-Bench-Science, while offering lower effective costs through reduced cache-read pricing. Traders assign low single-digit odds to the listed Opus variants because they represent prior generations with narrower context handling and weaker sustained task performance. The 27% on “Other” reflects the short window until September 21 and the possibility of a competitive release or leaderboard shift from another lab before resolution. No major rival announcements have surfaced in the past week to alter this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volumen
$10,001Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 has driven the 69% market-implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max, positioning it as the current leader for agentic coding, multistep research, and long-horizon knowledge work. The model delivers substantial benchmark gains over Fable 5 and outperforms Opus 5 on key evaluations such as Terminal-Bench-Science, while offering lower effective costs through reduced cache-read pricing. Traders assign low single-digit odds to the listed Opus variants because they represent prior generations with narrower context handling and weaker sustained task performance. The 27% on “Other” reflects the short window until September 21 and the possibility of a competitive release or leaderboard shift from another lab before resolution. No major rival announcements have surfaced in the past week to alter this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$10,001Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 has driven the 69% market-implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max, positioning it as the current leader for agentic coding, multistep research, and long-horizon knowledge work. The model delivers substantial benchmark gains over Fable 5 and outperforms Opus 5 on key evaluations such as Terminal-Bench-Science, while offering lower effective costs through reduced cache-read pricing. Traders assign low single-digit odds to the listed Opus variants because they represent prior generations with narrower context handling and weaker sustained task performance. The 27% on “Other” reflects the short window until September 21 and the possibility of a competitive release or leaderboard shift from another lab before resolution. No major rival announcements have surfaced in the past week to alter this consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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