Recent polling shows four parties—Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne—clustered between roughly 15% and 22% in the final weeks before the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, creating substantial uncertainty over exact finishing order. Trader consensus assigns Grüne the highest probability of landing fourth, followed by AfD, CDU, and SPD, while smaller parties trail far behind. Late swings in support, a CDU leadership change, and ongoing scrutiny of the SPD candidate have contributed to volatility across recent surveys. With turnout dynamics, minor-party thresholds, and possible last-minute shifts still unresolved, any modest polling movement could reorder the middle of the field and alter which party finishes fourth.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones estatales de Berlín: 4 .º puesto
Elecciones estatales de Berlín: 4 .º puesto
Grüne 52%
AfD 22%
CDU 21.3%
SPD 10%
$12,534 Vol.
$12,534 Vol.
20 sep 2026
Grüne
52%
AfD
22%
CDU
21%
SPD
10%
Linke
7%
BSW
1%
FDP
1%
FW
1%
Grüne 52%
AfD 22%
CDU 21.3%
SPD 10%
$12,534 Vol.
$12,534 Vol.
20 sep 2026
Grüne
$6,555 Vol.
52%
AfD
$4,140 Vol.
22%
CDU
$182 Vol.
21%
SPD
$344 Vol.
10%
Linke
$738 Vol.
7%
BSW
$212 Vol.
1%
FDP
$154 Vol.
1%
FW
$209 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling shows four parties—Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne—clustered between roughly 15% and 22% in the final weeks before the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, creating substantial uncertainty over exact finishing order. Trader consensus assigns Grüne the highest probability of landing fourth, followed by AfD, CDU, and SPD, while smaller parties trail far behind. Late swings in support, a CDU leadership change, and ongoing scrutiny of the SPD candidate have contributed to volatility across recent surveys. With turnout dynamics, minor-party thresholds, and possible last-minute shifts still unresolved, any modest polling movement could reorder the middle of the field and alter which party finishes fourth.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volumen
$12,534Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling shows four parties—Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne—clustered between roughly 15% and 22% in the final weeks before the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, creating substantial uncertainty over exact finishing order. Trader consensus assigns Grüne the highest probability of landing fourth, followed by AfD, CDU, and SPD, while smaller parties trail far behind. Late swings in support, a CDU leadership change, and ongoing scrutiny of the SPD candidate have contributed to volatility across recent surveys. With turnout dynamics, minor-party thresholds, and possible last-minute shifts still unresolved, any modest polling movement could reorder the middle of the field and alter which party finishes fourth.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$12,534Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows four parties—Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne—clustered between roughly 15% and 22% in the final weeks before the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, creating substantial uncertainty over exact finishing order. Trader consensus assigns Grüne the highest probability of landing fourth, followed by AfD, CDU, and SPD, while smaller parties trail far behind. Late swings in support, a CDU leadership change, and ongoing scrutiny of the SPD candidate have contributed to volatility across recent surveys. With turnout dynamics, minor-party thresholds, and possible last-minute shifts still unresolved, any modest polling movement could reorder the middle of the field and alter which party finishes fourth.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes