The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election results established AfD support at 16.3 percent of the party-list vote, translating directly to 29 seats in the 158-seat Abgeordnetenhaus under the personalized proportional system with a 5 percent threshold. This outcome aligned with pre-election polling averages that had stabilized around 17-18 percent for the party in the final weeks, reflecting gains from its 2023 baseline amid broader voter shifts away from the prior CDU-SPD coalition. Trader consensus at 29-31 seats reflects the completed count across all precincts, with only minor outstanding procedural steps such as official certification by the state returning officer. Late adjustments from recounts or invalidated ballots in individual constituencies remain the primary variables that could shift the precise total, though historical precedent shows such changes rarely exceed one or two seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado29-31 97.0%
35+ 1.7%
20-22 <1%
23-25 <1%
$99,933 Vol.
$99,933 Vol.
20 sep 2026
<20
<1%
20-22
1%
23-25
1%
26-28
<1%
29-31
97%
32-34
1%
35+
2%
29-31 97.0%
35+ 1.7%
20-22 <1%
23-25 <1%
$99,933 Vol.
$99,933 Vol.
20 sep 2026
<20
$4,698 Vol.
<1%
20-22
$8,820 Vol.
1%
23-25
$5,579 Vol.
1%
26-28
$17,040 Vol.
<1%
29-31
$9,219 Vol.
97%
32-34
$16,100 Vol.
1%
35+
$38,476 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election results established AfD support at 16.3 percent of the party-list vote, translating directly to 29 seats in the 158-seat Abgeordnetenhaus under the personalized proportional system with a 5 percent threshold. This outcome aligned with pre-election polling averages that had stabilized around 17-18 percent for the party in the final weeks, reflecting gains from its 2023 baseline amid broader voter shifts away from the prior CDU-SPD coalition. Trader consensus at 29-31 seats reflects the completed count across all precincts, with only minor outstanding procedural steps such as official certification by the state returning officer. Late adjustments from recounts or invalidated ballots in individual constituencies remain the primary variables that could shift the precise total, though historical precedent shows such changes rarely exceed one or two seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volumen
$99,933Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election results established AfD support at 16.3 percent of the party-list vote, translating directly to 29 seats in the 158-seat Abgeordnetenhaus under the personalized proportional system with a 5 percent threshold. This outcome aligned with pre-election polling averages that had stabilized around 17-18 percent for the party in the final weeks, reflecting gains from its 2023 baseline amid broader voter shifts away from the prior CDU-SPD coalition. Trader consensus at 29-31 seats reflects the completed count across all precincts, with only minor outstanding procedural steps such as official certification by the state returning officer. Late adjustments from recounts or invalidated ballots in individual constituencies remain the primary variables that could shift the precise total, though historical precedent shows such changes rarely exceed one or two seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$99,933Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election results established AfD support at 16.3 percent of the party-list vote, translating directly to 29 seats in the 158-seat Abgeordnetenhaus under the personalized proportional system with a 5 percent threshold. This outcome aligned with pre-election polling averages that had stabilized around 17-18 percent for the party in the final weeks, reflecting gains from its 2023 baseline amid broader voter shifts away from the prior CDU-SPD coalition. Trader consensus at 29-31 seats reflects the completed count across all precincts, with only minor outstanding procedural steps such as official certification by the state returning officer. Late adjustments from recounts or invalidated ballots in individual constituencies remain the primary variables that could shift the precise total, though historical precedent shows such changes rarely exceed one or two seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes