Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the AfD holding steady in the 17–19% range, placing it in a tight contest with the CDU, Linke, and Greens. Late-August and early-September surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, Civey, and Forsa consistently record AfD support near 18%, up sharply from its 9.1% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The party’s strong performance in the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election has reinforced national momentum on immigration and economic issues, yet Berlin’s urban electorate and the established firewall limiting coalition options continue to cap its ceiling. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to the 17–20% band, with a solid chance of a modest overshoot to 20%+ but little likelihood of falling below 14%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado17-20% 48%
20%+ 32%
14-17% 20%
<14% 3.0%
$19,411 Vol.
$19,411 Vol.
20 sep 2026
<14%
3%
14-17%
20%
17-20%
48%
20%+
32%
17-20% 48%
20%+ 32%
14-17% 20%
<14% 3.0%
$19,411 Vol.
$19,411 Vol.
20 sep 2026
<14%
$3,083 Vol.
3%
14-17%
$4,169 Vol.
20%
17-20%
$4,258 Vol.
48%
20%+
$7,902 Vol.
32%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the AfD holding steady in the 17–19% range, placing it in a tight contest with the CDU, Linke, and Greens. Late-August and early-September surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, Civey, and Forsa consistently record AfD support near 18%, up sharply from its 9.1% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The party’s strong performance in the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election has reinforced national momentum on immigration and economic issues, yet Berlin’s urban electorate and the established firewall limiting coalition options continue to cap its ceiling. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to the 17–20% band, with a solid chance of a modest overshoot to 20%+ but little likelihood of falling below 14%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volumen
$19,411Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the AfD holding steady in the 17–19% range, placing it in a tight contest with the CDU, Linke, and Greens. Late-August and early-September surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, Civey, and Forsa consistently record AfD support near 18%, up sharply from its 9.1% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The party’s strong performance in the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election has reinforced national momentum on immigration and economic issues, yet Berlin’s urban electorate and the established firewall limiting coalition options continue to cap its ceiling. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to the 17–20% band, with a solid chance of a modest overshoot to 20%+ but little likelihood of falling below 14%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$19,411Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election shows the AfD holding steady in the 17–19% range, placing it in a tight contest with the CDU, Linke, and Greens. Late-August and early-September surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, Civey, and Forsa consistently record AfD support near 18%, up sharply from its 9.1% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The party’s strong performance in the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election has reinforced national momentum on immigration and economic issues, yet Berlin’s urban electorate and the established firewall limiting coalition options continue to cap its ceiling. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to the 17–20% band, with a solid chance of a modest overshoot to 20%+ but little likelihood of falling below 14%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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