**Clear skies under persistent high pressure are driving trader expectations for a notably cool overnight minimum in Madrid on September 11.** Recent GFS and other model runs indicate radiative cooling under dry, calm conditions will push the daily low into the low-to-mid teens °C, with several forecasts centering around 12–14 °C—well below the 16.2 °C climatological average for the date. This aligns with the market-implied 70 % probability on 11 °C or below, as the current synoptic pattern favors efficient nocturnal heat loss without cloud cover or significant wind to moderate temperatures. Warmer outcomes (21 °C+) remain possible only if models shift toward increased moisture or a stronger southerly flow, but consensus currently supports the cooler scenario ahead of the next major forecast updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Madrid am 11. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Madrid am 11. September?
11°C oder niedriger 70%
21°C oder höher 46%
12°C 26%
13°C 21%
NEU
NEU
11. Sep. 2026
11°C oder niedriger
70%
12°C
26%
13°C
21%
14°C
18%
15°C
15%
16°C
14%
17°C
14%
18°C
5%
19°C
5%
20°C
5%
21°C oder höher
46%
11°C oder niedriger 70%
21°C oder höher 46%
12°C 26%
13°C 21%
NEU
NEU
11. Sep. 2026
11°C oder niedriger
$51 Vol.
70%
12°C
$12 Vol.
26%
13°C
$12 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$0 Vol.
15%
16°C
$0 Vol.
14%
17°C
$0 Vol.
14%
18°C
$0 Vol.
5%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies under persistent high pressure are driving trader expectations for a notably cool overnight minimum in Madrid on September 11.** Recent GFS and other model runs indicate radiative cooling under dry, calm conditions will push the daily low into the low-to-mid teens °C, with several forecasts centering around 12–14 °C—well below the 16.2 °C climatological average for the date. This aligns with the market-implied 70 % probability on 11 °C or below, as the current synoptic pattern favors efficient nocturnal heat loss without cloud cover or significant wind to moderate temperatures. Warmer outcomes (21 °C+) remain possible only if models shift toward increased moisture or a stronger southerly flow, but consensus currently supports the cooler scenario ahead of the next major forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$75Enddatum
11. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies under persistent high pressure are driving trader expectations for a notably cool overnight minimum in Madrid on September 11.** Recent GFS and other model runs indicate radiative cooling under dry, calm conditions will push the daily low into the low-to-mid teens °C, with several forecasts centering around 12–14 °C—well below the 16.2 °C climatological average for the date. This aligns with the market-implied 70 % probability on 11 °C or below, as the current synoptic pattern favors efficient nocturnal heat loss without cloud cover or significant wind to moderate temperatures. Warmer outcomes (21 °C+) remain possible only if models shift toward increased moisture or a stronger southerly flow, but consensus currently supports the cooler scenario ahead of the next major forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$75Enddatum
11. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies under persistent high pressure are driving trader expectations for a notably cool overnight minimum in Madrid on September 11.** Recent GFS and other model runs indicate radiative cooling under dry, calm conditions will push the daily low into the low-to-mid teens °C, with several forecasts centering around 12–14 °C—well below the 16.2 °C climatological average for the date. This aligns with the market-implied 70 % probability on 11 °C or below, as the current synoptic pattern favors efficient nocturnal heat loss without cloud cover or significant wind to moderate temperatures. Warmer outcomes (21 °C+) remain possible only if models shift toward increased moisture or a stronger southerly flow, but consensus currently supports the cooler scenario ahead of the next major forecast updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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