**Constitutional immunity under Article 84 of South Korea’s constitution shields sitting President Lee Jae-myung from criminal prosecution or arrest in most cases, except insurrection or treason.** Pre-presidency trials on charges including election-law violations, development-project corruption, and alleged remittances remain suspended by courts, with proceedings deferred until after his term ends in 2030. The ruling Democratic Party’s legislative majority and influence over prosecution-related processes have further limited near-term enforcement risks. No new arrest warrants, successful legislative overrides, or qualifying charges have emerged in recent months. Recent developments center on Lee’s diplomatic engagements, prosecution-system reforms, and constitutional-amendment discussions that he has explicitly stated will not extend his own term. Traders therefore view the institutional barriers as durable through the end of 2026, producing the strong consensus against arrest before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
7% Chance
$540,982 Vol.
$540,982 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
7% Chance
$540,982 Vol.
$540,982 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Constitutional immunity under Article 84 of South Korea’s constitution shields sitting President Lee Jae-myung from criminal prosecution or arrest in most cases, except insurrection or treason.** Pre-presidency trials on charges including election-law violations, development-project corruption, and alleged remittances remain suspended by courts, with proceedings deferred until after his term ends in 2030.
The ruling Democratic Party’s legislative majority and influence over prosecution-related processes have further limited near-term enforcement risks. No new arrest warrants, successful legislative overrides, or qualifying charges have emerged in recent months. Recent developments center on Lee’s diplomatic engagements, prosecution-system reforms, and constitutional-amendment discussions that he has explicitly stated will not extend his own term. Traders therefore view the institutional barriers as durable through the end of 2026, producing the strong consensus against arrest before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volumen
$540,982Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Constitutional immunity under Article 84 of South Korea’s constitution shields sitting President Lee Jae-myung from criminal prosecution or arrest in most cases, except insurrection or treason.** Pre-presidency trials on charges including election-law violations, development-project corruption, and alleged remittances remain suspended by courts, with proceedings deferred until after his term ends in 2030.
The ruling Democratic Party’s legislative majority and influence over prosecution-related processes have further limited near-term enforcement risks. No new arrest warrants, successful legislative overrides, or qualifying charges have emerged in recent months. Recent developments center on Lee’s diplomatic engagements, prosecution-system reforms, and constitutional-amendment discussions that he has explicitly stated will not extend his own term. Traders therefore view the institutional barriers as durable through the end of 2026, producing the strong consensus against arrest before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$540,982Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Constitutional immunity under Article 84 of South Korea’s constitution shields sitting President Lee Jae-myung from criminal prosecution or arrest in most cases, except insurrection or treason.** Pre-presidency trials on charges including election-law violations, development-project corruption, and alleged remittances remain suspended by courts, with proceedings deferred until after his term ends in 2030. The ruling Democratic Party’s legislative majority and influence over prosecution-related processes have further limited near-term enforcement risks. No new arrest warrants, successful legislative overrides, or qualifying charges have emerged in recent months. Recent developments center on Lee’s diplomatic engagements, prosecution-system reforms, and constitutional-amendment discussions that he has explicitly stated will not extend his own term. Traders therefore view the institutional barriers as durable through the end of 2026, producing the strong consensus against arrest before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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