Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+26, making it the state's most Republican-leaning seat. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces minimal opposition in the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, with Democratic candidates raising under $300,000 combined against his $20 million-plus war chest. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5% implied probability because the district's voting patterns, Johnson's established position, and weak challengers align with historical base rates for such seats. A late scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge exceeding 2020 levels could shift outcomes, though none appear on the immediate horizon before the December runoff window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertLA-04 Wahlsieger
LA-04 Wahlsieger
$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
95%
Demokratische Partei
6%
$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$3,671 Vol.
95%
Demokratische Partei
$8,326 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+26, making it the state's most Republican-leaning seat. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces minimal opposition in the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, with Democratic candidates raising under $300,000 combined against his $20 million-plus war chest. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5% implied probability because the district's voting patterns, Johnson's established position, and weak challengers align with historical base rates for such seats. A late scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge exceeding 2020 levels could shift outcomes, though none appear on the immediate horizon before the December runoff window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$11,997Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+26, making it the state's most Republican-leaning seat. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces minimal opposition in the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, with Democratic candidates raising under $300,000 combined against his $20 million-plus war chest. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5% implied probability because the district's voting patterns, Johnson's established position, and weak challengers align with historical base rates for such seats. A late scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge exceeding 2020 levels could shift outcomes, though none appear on the immediate horizon before the December runoff window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,997Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+26, making it the state's most Republican-leaning seat. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces minimal opposition in the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, with Democratic candidates raising under $300,000 combined against his $20 million-plus war chest. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5% implied probability because the district's voting patterns, Johnson's established position, and weak challengers align with historical base rates for such seats. A late scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge exceeding 2020 levels could shift outcomes, though none appear on the immediate horizon before the December runoff window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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