Ongoing escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including renewed US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian missile and drone responses in early September 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. These exchanges, tied to attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and ballistic threats, have prompted temporary or partial closures in prior phases of the war, such as February-March and June 2026. Israeli carriers have resumed limited operations at Ben Gurion Airport, with United Airlines restarting flights in early September after a six-month pause, while EASA maintains medium-risk advisories for the region. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any further missile activity or proxy involvement could shift closure probabilities before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$30,008,774 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
97%
$30,008,774 Vol.
30. September
$2,415,616 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including renewed US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian missile and drone responses in early September 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. These exchanges, tied to attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and ballistic threats, have prompted temporary or partial closures in prior phases of the war, such as February-March and June 2026. Israeli carriers have resumed limited operations at Ben Gurion Airport, with United Airlines restarting flights in early September after a six-month pause, while EASA maintains medium-risk advisories for the region. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any further missile activity or proxy involvement could shift closure probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volumen
$30,008,774Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including renewed US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian missile and drone responses in early September 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. These exchanges, tied to attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and ballistic threats, have prompted temporary or partial closures in prior phases of the war, such as February-March and June 2026. Israeli carriers have resumed limited operations at Ben Gurion Airport, with United Airlines restarting flights in early September after a six-month pause, while EASA maintains medium-risk advisories for the region. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any further missile activity or proxy involvement could shift closure probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$30,008,774Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Ongoing escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including renewed US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian missile and drone responses in early September 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. These exchanges, tied to attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and ballistic threats, have prompted temporary or partial closures in prior phases of the war, such as February-March and June 2026. Israeli carriers have resumed limited operations at Ben Gurion Airport, with United Airlines restarting flights in early September after a six-month pause, while EASA maintains medium-risk advisories for the region. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any further missile activity or proxy involvement could shift closure probabilities before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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