Hu Jintao, now in his mid-80s, has recorded no verified public appearances since late 2022, when he attended the Jiang Zemin funeral procession. Subsequent events, including 2025 military parades and 2026 memorials for other elders, have seen only written condolences or wreath-sending listed in state media, with no photographic or video evidence of his presence. Mid-2026 reports of further health deterioration, combined with his documented frailty at the 2022 party congress and consistent absence from official ceremonies, underpin the 95.7% trader consensus on no appearance by year-end. With roughly three months remaining and no scheduled public events involving retired paramount leaders, the market reflects established patterns of minimal visibility for figures in similar condition. A late symbolic appearance at a major state function or verified live broadcast could still shift resolution, though such scenarios remain low-probability given the current trajectory.