Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and ICON points to a maximum temperature of 17–19°C in Warsaw on September 11 under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions and light westerly winds, following a sharp cooldown after peak readings near 29°C on September 9. Persistent high pressure and a cooler air mass have limited daytime heating, with hourly guidance showing afternoon peaks clustered around 18°C and minimal solar insolation due to cloud cover. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18°C (46%) and 17°C (27.5%), reflecting tight model agreement on these thresholds while acknowledging minor spread in exact timing and local effects that could nudge the daily high. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine the final outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 11. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 11. September?
18°C 48%
17°C 28%
19°C 21%
16°C 5%
NEU
NEU
11. Sep. 2026
14°C oder niedriger
2%
15 °C
4%
16°C
5%
17°C
28%
18°C
48%
19°C
21%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C oder höher
<1%
18°C 48%
17°C 28%
19°C 21%
16°C 5%
NEU
NEU
11. Sep. 2026
14°C oder niedriger
$40 Vol.
2%
15 °C
$70 Vol.
4%
16°C
$345 Vol.
5%
17°C
$1,350 Vol.
28%
18°C
$461 Vol.
48%
19°C
$652 Vol.
21%
20°C
$300 Vol.
4%
21°C
$238 Vol.
2%
22°C
$49 Vol.
1%
23°C
$220 Vol.
<1%
24°C oder höher
$243 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and ICON points to a maximum temperature of 17–19°C in Warsaw on September 11 under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions and light westerly winds, following a sharp cooldown after peak readings near 29°C on September 9. Persistent high pressure and a cooler air mass have limited daytime heating, with hourly guidance showing afternoon peaks clustered around 18°C and minimal solar insolation due to cloud cover. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18°C (46%) and 17°C (27.5%), reflecting tight model agreement on these thresholds while acknowledging minor spread in exact timing and local effects that could nudge the daily high. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine the final outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$3,969Enddatum
11. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and ICON points to a maximum temperature of 17–19°C in Warsaw on September 11 under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions and light westerly winds, following a sharp cooldown after peak readings near 29°C on September 9. Persistent high pressure and a cooler air mass have limited daytime heating, with hourly guidance showing afternoon peaks clustered around 18°C and minimal solar insolation due to cloud cover. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18°C (46%) and 17°C (27.5%), reflecting tight model agreement on these thresholds while acknowledging minor spread in exact timing and local effects that could nudge the daily high. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine the final outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,969Enddatum
11. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and ICON points to a maximum temperature of 17–19°C in Warsaw on September 11 under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions and light westerly winds, following a sharp cooldown after peak readings near 29°C on September 9. Persistent high pressure and a cooler air mass have limited daytime heating, with hourly guidance showing afternoon peaks clustered around 18°C and minimal solar insolation due to cloud cover. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18°C (46%) and 17°C (27.5%), reflecting tight model agreement on these thresholds while acknowledging minor spread in exact timing and local effects that could nudge the daily high. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine the final outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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