**Forecast models and observational trends position 20°C as the leading outcome for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on September 11, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting broad consensus around 19–21°C.** Current short-range guidance from sources including GFS, ECMWF-influenced runs, and local stations shows a high near 19–20°C (roughly 66–68°F) under mostly cloudy skies with periods of light rain or showers. Southwesterly flow and moderate humidity (around 75–85%) are expected to limit daytime heating, while a passing frontal feature adds cloud cover that caps solar insolation. This aligns with the late-summer/early-autumn climatology for the region, where the long-term average high on September 11 is approximately 19.6°C and extremes above 22°C remain uncommon without strong anticyclonic setup. Recent model runs through September 10 have shown little spread on peak values, with most outputs clustering in the 19–20°C range and only modest upward revisions possible if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability (over 85% combined) to 19–21°C, treating the market as a near-term meteorological consensus rather than a long-range projection. Updated forecasts on the morning of the 11th, particularly from the National Weather Service equivalents or high-resolution models, will be the key near-term catalyst for any final shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Amsterdam am 11. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Amsterdam am 11. September?
20°C 56%
21°C 30%
19°C 10%
22°C 4%
NEU
NEU
11. Sep. 2026
14°C oder niedriger
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
3%
19°C
10%
20°C
56%
21°C
30%
22°C
4%
23°C
2%
24°C oder höher
1%
20°C 56%
21°C 30%
19°C 10%
22°C 4%
NEU
NEU
11. Sep. 2026
14°C oder niedriger
$89 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$146 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$117 Vol.
2%
18°C
$96 Vol.
3%
19°C
$213 Vol.
10%
20°C
$742 Vol.
56%
21°C
$1,079 Vol.
30%
22°C
$150 Vol.
4%
23°C
$201 Vol.
2%
24°C oder höher
$142 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational trends position 20°C as the leading outcome for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on September 11, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting broad consensus around 19–21°C.**
Current short-range guidance from sources including GFS, ECMWF-influenced runs, and local stations shows a high near 19–20°C (roughly 66–68°F) under mostly cloudy skies with periods of light rain or showers. Southwesterly flow and moderate humidity (around 75–85%) are expected to limit daytime heating, while a passing frontal feature adds cloud cover that caps solar insolation. This aligns with the late-summer/early-autumn climatology for the region, where the long-term average high on September 11 is approximately 19.6°C and extremes above 22°C remain uncommon without strong anticyclonic setup.
Recent model runs through September 10 have shown little spread on peak values, with most outputs clustering in the 19–20°C range and only modest upward revisions possible if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability (over 85% combined) to 19–21°C, treating the market as a near-term meteorological consensus rather than a long-range projection. Updated forecasts on the morning of the 11th, particularly from the National Weather Service equivalents or high-resolution models, will be the key near-term catalyst for any final shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$3,029Enddatum
11. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational trends position 20°C as the leading outcome for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on September 11, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting broad consensus around 19–21°C.**
Current short-range guidance from sources including GFS, ECMWF-influenced runs, and local stations shows a high near 19–20°C (roughly 66–68°F) under mostly cloudy skies with periods of light rain or showers. Southwesterly flow and moderate humidity (around 75–85%) are expected to limit daytime heating, while a passing frontal feature adds cloud cover that caps solar insolation. This aligns with the late-summer/early-autumn climatology for the region, where the long-term average high on September 11 is approximately 19.6°C and extremes above 22°C remain uncommon without strong anticyclonic setup.
Recent model runs through September 10 have shown little spread on peak values, with most outputs clustering in the 19–20°C range and only modest upward revisions possible if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability (over 85% combined) to 19–21°C, treating the market as a near-term meteorological consensus rather than a long-range projection. Updated forecasts on the morning of the 11th, particularly from the National Weather Service equivalents or high-resolution models, will be the key near-term catalyst for any final shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,029Enddatum
11. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and observational trends position 20°C as the leading outcome for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on September 11, 2026, with market-implied odds reflecting broad consensus around 19–21°C.** Current short-range guidance from sources including GFS, ECMWF-influenced runs, and local stations shows a high near 19–20°C (roughly 66–68°F) under mostly cloudy skies with periods of light rain or showers. Southwesterly flow and moderate humidity (around 75–85%) are expected to limit daytime heating, while a passing frontal feature adds cloud cover that caps solar insolation. This aligns with the late-summer/early-autumn climatology for the region, where the long-term average high on September 11 is approximately 19.6°C and extremes above 22°C remain uncommon without strong anticyclonic setup. Recent model runs through September 10 have shown little spread on peak values, with most outputs clustering in the 19–20°C range and only modest upward revisions possible if clearing occurs earlier than expected. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability (over 85% combined) to 19–21°C, treating the market as a near-term meteorological consensus rather than a long-range projection. Updated forecasts on the morning of the 11th, particularly from the National Weather Service equivalents or high-resolution models, will be the key near-term catalyst for any final shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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