The September 18 by-election for Samoa’s Falealili 1 seat in the Legislative Assembly stems from the Court of Appeal’s June 2026 ruling that voided former FAST MP and deputy prime minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo’s 2025 victory on bribery grounds. A crowded field of roughly a dozen candidates, including multiple FAST nominees such as Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale and independents or HRPP-linked contenders like Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu and Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko, has fragmented support and kept implied probabilities tightly clustered. Recent candidate nominations and limited time for withdrawals have reinforced the competitive balance, with traders viewing the outcome as sensitive to local turnout patterns, party coordination, and any late shifts in voter preferences among the main contenders before polling.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAuseugalelei Uiti Lagavale 37%
Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu 26%
Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko 21%
Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai 6.6%
$13,494 Vol.
$13,494 Vol.

Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale
37%

Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu
26%

Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko
21%

Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai
7%

Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu
4%

Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen
4%

Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea
4%
Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale 37%
Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu 26%
Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko 21%
Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai 6.6%
$13,494 Vol.
$13,494 Vol.

Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale
37%

Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu
26%

Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko
21%

Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai
7%

Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu
4%

Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen
4%

Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea
4%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 31, 2026, 3:59 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...The September 18 by-election for Samoa’s Falealili 1 seat in the Legislative Assembly stems from the Court of Appeal’s June 2026 ruling that voided former FAST MP and deputy prime minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo’s 2025 victory on bribery grounds. A crowded field of roughly a dozen candidates, including multiple FAST nominees such as Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale and independents or HRPP-linked contenders like Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu and Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko, has fragmented support and kept implied probabilities tightly clustered. Recent candidate nominations and limited time for withdrawals have reinforced the competitive balance, with traders viewing the outcome as sensitive to local turnout patterns, party coordination, and any late shifts in voter preferences among the main contenders before polling.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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