**Nigel Farage holds the Clacton seat for Reform UK following his August 2026 by-election victory, and the ongoing parliamentary standards investigation into his financial declarations has not yet produced an outcome likely to trigger a recall petition or vacancy before the end of the year.** Farage resigned the seat in July 2026 amid scrutiny over a £5 million pre-2024 gift from donor Christopher Harborne, then won the resulting by-election on 13 August with 63.3% against a record field of 34 candidates (boycotted by major parties). The standards probe resumed immediately after his re-election. Under Commons rules, a suspension of 10 or more sitting days would activate a recall petition process that could force another by-election, but that sequence requires committee findings, a House vote, and sufficient petition signatures—steps that typically unfold over months rather than weeks. As of mid-September 2026, no confirmed suspension or petition threshold has been reached, and the timeline makes completion before December improbable. Trader consensus at 88% for “No” reflects these procedural barriers and the absence of any accelerating developments in the past month. A late-breaking committee report or unexpected escalation could still alter the path, but current evidence points to the seat remaining occupied through year-end.