The 96.7% market-implied probability that no Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson winds ≥157 mph) will make U.S. landfall before 2027 reflects the extreme rarity of such events—only five confirmed cases since 1851—combined with suppressed Atlantic activity through the 2025 and 2026 seasons. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms but none reached the contiguous U.S. coastline. The 2026 season has been exceptionally quiet, with accumulated cyclone energy near 5.7 as of mid-September, well below average, amid a strengthening El Niño that favors increased wind shear and fewer major hurricanes. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 1–3 major hurricanes for 2026 overall, with continental U.S. major landfall probabilities revised downward to 17–24%. Late-season formation and rapid intensification remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before November 30, 2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
3% সম্ভাবনা
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% সম্ভাবনা
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 96.7% market-implied probability that no Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson winds ≥157 mph) will make U.S. landfall before 2027 reflects the extreme rarity of such events—only five confirmed cases since 1851—combined with suppressed Atlantic activity through the 2025 and 2026 seasons. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms but none reached the contiguous U.S. coastline. The 2026 season has been exceptionally quiet, with accumulated cyclone energy near 5.7 as of mid-September, well below average, amid a strengthening El Niño that favors increased wind shear and fewer major hurricanes. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 1–3 major hurricanes for 2026 overall, with continental U.S. major landfall probabilities revised downward to 17–24%. Late-season formation and rapid intensification remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before November 30, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$142,105শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 96.7% market-implied probability that no Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson winds ≥157 mph) will make U.S. landfall before 2027 reflects the extreme rarity of such events—only five confirmed cases since 1851—combined with suppressed Atlantic activity through the 2025 and 2026 seasons. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms but none reached the contiguous U.S. coastline. The 2026 season has been exceptionally quiet, with accumulated cyclone energy near 5.7 as of mid-September, well below average, amid a strengthening El Niño that favors increased wind shear and fewer major hurricanes. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 1–3 major hurricanes for 2026 overall, with continental U.S. major landfall probabilities revised downward to 17–24%. Late-season formation and rapid intensification remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before November 30, 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ভলিউম
$142,105শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...The 96.7% market-implied probability that no Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson winds ≥157 mph) will make U.S. landfall before 2027 reflects the extreme rarity of such events—only five confirmed cases since 1851—combined with suppressed Atlantic activity through the 2025 and 2026 seasons. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms but none reached the contiguous U.S. coastline. The 2026 season has been exceptionally quiet, with accumulated cyclone energy near 5.7 as of mid-September, well below average, amid a strengthening El Niño that favors increased wind shear and fewer major hurricanes. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University project just 1–3 major hurricanes for 2026 overall, with continental U.S. major landfall probabilities revised downward to 17–24%. Late-season formation and rapid intensification remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before November 30, 2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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