SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate at moderate global risk according to the WHO’s July 2026 assessment, with low test positivity, declining hospitalizations and deaths, and population immunity from prior infections and vaccinations limiting severe outcomes. Dominant variants under monitoring, such as XFG and NB.1.8.1, show no evidence of the immune escape or virulence needed for pandemic-scale spread. Official surveillance through CDC, WHO, and wastewater monitoring confirms seasonal patterns without crossing into uncontrolled transmission. A realistic shift could occur if a novel coronavirus spills over from animal reservoirs or if an existing lineage acquires substantial changes enabling rapid global dissemination before updated vaccines or interventions take effect.