Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads multiple independent LLM benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of mid-September 2026, driving the 74.5% market-implied odds that the company will hold the top model by end of November. Recent releases and internal R&D integration have strengthened its position against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, while most other labs trail on capability metrics. Traders appear to price in limited time for competitors to close the gap before the resolution date, though new model launches, benchmark updates, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could still shift sentiment. The market reflects aggregated bets on sustained frontier performance rather than guarantees amid rapid iteration cycles.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAnthropic 75%
Google 9%
Meta 8%
Amazon 4.8%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
75%
9%
Meta
8%
Amazon
5%
Meituan
3%
StepFun
3%
Thinky
3%
Nvidia
3%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
2%
Tencent
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Anthropic 75%
Google 9%
Meta 8%
Amazon 4.8%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$1,221 Vol.
75%
$188 Vol.
9%
Meta
$194 Vol.
8%
Amazon
$191 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$191 Vol.
3%
StepFun
$191 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$193 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$180 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$182 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$182 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$166 Vol.
2%
Tencent
$186 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$145 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$131 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$170 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$187 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$190 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$191 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$191 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$231 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$260 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads multiple independent LLM benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of mid-September 2026, driving the 74.5% market-implied odds that the company will hold the top model by end of November. Recent releases and internal R&D integration have strengthened its position against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, while most other labs trail on capability metrics. Traders appear to price in limited time for competitors to close the gap before the resolution date, though new model launches, benchmark updates, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could still shift sentiment. The market reflects aggregated bets on sustained frontier performance rather than guarantees amid rapid iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
ভলিউম
$4,960শেষ তারিখ
Dec 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads multiple independent LLM benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of mid-September 2026, driving the 74.5% market-implied odds that the company will hold the top model by end of November. Recent releases and internal R&D integration have strengthened its position against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, while most other labs trail on capability metrics. Traders appear to price in limited time for competitors to close the gap before the resolution date, though new model launches, benchmark updates, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could still shift sentiment. The market reflects aggregated bets on sustained frontier performance rather than guarantees amid rapid iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ভলিউম
$4,960শেষ তারিখ
Dec 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads multiple independent LLM benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks as of mid-September 2026, driving the 74.5% market-implied odds that the company will hold the top model by end of November. Recent releases and internal R&D integration have strengthened its position against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini variants, while most other labs trail on capability metrics. Traders appear to price in limited time for competitors to close the gap before the resolution date, though new model launches, benchmark updates, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could still shift sentiment. The market reflects aggregated bets on sustained frontier performance rather than guarantees amid rapid iteration cycles.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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