Strong labor market resilience and sticky inflation have anchored trader sentiment toward the overheating outcome for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026. August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding at 4.1 percent while CPI rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, with core measures also firm. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforced this view, lifting the median PCE inflation forecast to 3.7 percent and keeping the unemployment projection at 4.1 percent, alongside expectations for an additional policy rate hike. These conditions—low joblessness below the 5 percent threshold paired with inflation above 3.5 percent—align closely with the overheating definition, driving its 76 percent market-implied probability. Recent revisions to Fed dot plots underscore persistent price pressures over the balance of the year, with limited scope for rapid disinflation before December.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডOverheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 77%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$88,537 Vol.
$88,537 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
77%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
<1%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 77%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$88,537 Vol.
$88,537 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$29,992 Vol.
77%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$41,074 Vol.
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$4,609 Vol.
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$12,863 Vol.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Strong labor market resilience and sticky inflation have anchored trader sentiment toward the overheating outcome for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026. August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding at 4.1 percent while CPI rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, with core measures also firm. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforced this view, lifting the median PCE inflation forecast to 3.7 percent and keeping the unemployment projection at 4.1 percent, alongside expectations for an additional policy rate hike. These conditions—low joblessness below the 5 percent threshold paired with inflation above 3.5 percent—align closely with the overheating definition, driving its 76 percent market-implied probability. Recent revisions to Fed dot plots underscore persistent price pressures over the balance of the year, with limited scope for rapid disinflation before December.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ভলিউম
$88,537শেষ তারিখ
Jan 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Strong labor market resilience and sticky inflation have anchored trader sentiment toward the overheating outcome for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026. August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding at 4.1 percent while CPI rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, with core measures also firm. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforced this view, lifting the median PCE inflation forecast to 3.7 percent and keeping the unemployment projection at 4.1 percent, alongside expectations for an additional policy rate hike. These conditions—low joblessness below the 5 percent threshold paired with inflation above 3.5 percent—align closely with the overheating definition, driving its 76 percent market-implied probability. Recent revisions to Fed dot plots underscore persistent price pressures over the balance of the year, with limited scope for rapid disinflation before December.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ভলিউম
$88,537শেষ তারিখ
Jan 31, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Strong labor market resilience and sticky inflation have anchored trader sentiment toward the overheating outcome for the U.S. economy at year-end 2026. August 2026 data showed the unemployment rate holding at 4.1 percent while CPI rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, with core measures also firm. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections reinforced this view, lifting the median PCE inflation forecast to 3.7 percent and keeping the unemployment projection at 4.1 percent, alongside expectations for an additional policy rate hike. These conditions—low joblessness below the 5 percent threshold paired with inflation above 3.5 percent—align closely with the overheating definition, driving its 76 percent market-implied probability. Recent revisions to Fed dot plots underscore persistent price pressures over the balance of the year, with limited scope for rapid disinflation before December.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা