Recent polling aggregates and seat projections for Quebec’s October 5 election show Parti Vert du Québec support remaining below 2 percent province-wide, well short of the thresholds needed to capture any of the 127 ridings under first-past-the-post rules. Established parties—Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire—dominate both vote intention and riding-level forecasts, with no competitive PVQ candidates appearing in current models. This limited visibility and organizational reach underpin the 95.5 percent trader consensus against a seat win. Late-campaign shifts in environmental priorities, candidate nominations, or unusually high youth turnout in targeted districts could still alter narrow local outcomes before polls close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
5% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates and seat projections for Quebec’s October 5 election show Parti Vert du Québec support remaining below 2 percent province-wide, well short of the thresholds needed to capture any of the 127 ridings under first-past-the-post rules. Established parties—Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire—dominate both vote intention and riding-level forecasts, with no competitive PVQ candidates appearing in current models. This limited visibility and organizational reach underpin the 95.5 percent trader consensus against a seat win. Late-campaign shifts in environmental priorities, candidate nominations, or unusually high youth turnout in targeted districts could still alter narrow local outcomes before polls close.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
交易量
$247结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates and seat projections for Quebec’s October 5 election show Parti Vert du Québec support remaining below 2 percent province-wide, well short of the thresholds needed to capture any of the 127 ridings under first-past-the-post rules. Established parties—Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire—dominate both vote intention and riding-level forecasts, with no competitive PVQ candidates appearing in current models. This limited visibility and organizational reach underpin the 95.5 percent trader consensus against a seat win. Late-campaign shifts in environmental priorities, candidate nominations, or unusually high youth turnout in targeted districts could still alter narrow local outcomes before polls close.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$247结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETRecent polling aggregates and seat projections for Quebec’s October 5 election show Parti Vert du Québec support remaining below 2 percent province-wide, well short of the thresholds needed to capture any of the 127 ridings under first-past-the-post rules. Established parties—Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire—dominate both vote intention and riding-level forecasts, with no competitive PVQ candidates appearing in current models. This limited visibility and organizational reach underpin the 95.5 percent trader consensus against a seat win. Late-campaign shifts in environmental priorities, candidate nominations, or unusually high youth turnout in targeted districts could still alter narrow local outcomes before polls close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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