**The primary driver behind the 76.3% market-implied probability that Paramount Skydance will not close its $111 billion Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition by December 31, 2026, is the July 2026 antitrust lawsuit filed by 12 state attorneys general.** A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order, prompting the parties to stipulate a delay until at least June 1, 2027, or a final court ruling—whichever comes first. The antitrust trial is now scheduled for March 2027 with an expected conclusion in April, well after year-end. While the deal secured DOJ approval in June, shareholder support in April, and various international clearances, the ongoing state-level litigation and agreed pause have shifted trader consensus toward a 2027 close at the earliest. No near-term catalysts, such as settlements or expedited rulings, appear likely to accelerate the timeline before the end of 2026.