**No at 73% reflects a market that has already seen multiple $150 million-plus results in 2025–2026 but views another one before year-end as less certain amid lumpy supply.** The standout 2025 Klimt *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* ($236.4 million) and May 2026 Pollock *Number 7A* ($181.2 million) came from major estate dispersals (Lauder, Newhouse, Gund), driving the recent rebound in trophy Modern and Postwar works. With those collections largely cleared and fewer comparable single-owner blocks confirmed for the fall New York or London seasons, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of pushing another lot over the threshold by December 31. Upcoming evening sales and any late private-treaty reports remain the key swing factors, yet the compressed timeline and historical reliance on exceptional provenance keep the “No” side favored.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗？
一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗？
是
40% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
40% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 73% reflects a market that has already seen multiple $150 million-plus results in 2025–2026 but views another one before year-end as less certain amid lumpy supply.**
The standout 2025 Klimt *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* ($236.4 million) and May 2026 Pollock *Number 7A* ($181.2 million) came from major estate dispersals (Lauder, Newhouse, Gund), driving the recent rebound in trophy Modern and Postwar works. With those collections largely cleared and fewer comparable single-owner blocks confirmed for the fall New York or London seasons, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of pushing another lot over the threshold by December 31. Upcoming evening sales and any late private-treaty reports remain the key swing factors, yet the compressed timeline and historical reliance on exceptional provenance keep the “No” side favored.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,616结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 73% reflects a market that has already seen multiple $150 million-plus results in 2025–2026 but views another one before year-end as less certain amid lumpy supply.**
The standout 2025 Klimt *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* ($236.4 million) and May 2026 Pollock *Number 7A* ($181.2 million) came from major estate dispersals (Lauder, Newhouse, Gund), driving the recent rebound in trophy Modern and Postwar works. With those collections largely cleared and fewer comparable single-owner blocks confirmed for the fall New York or London seasons, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of pushing another lot over the threshold by December 31. Upcoming evening sales and any late private-treaty reports remain the key swing factors, yet the compressed timeline and historical reliance on exceptional provenance keep the “No” side favored.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$1,616结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET**No at 73% reflects a market that has already seen multiple $150 million-plus results in 2025–2026 but views another one before year-end as less certain amid lumpy supply.** The standout 2025 Klimt *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* ($236.4 million) and May 2026 Pollock *Number 7A* ($181.2 million) came from major estate dispersals (Lauder, Newhouse, Gund), driving the recent rebound in trophy Modern and Postwar works. With those collections largely cleared and fewer comparable single-owner blocks confirmed for the fall New York or London seasons, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of pushing another lot over the threshold by December 31. Upcoming evening sales and any late private-treaty reports remain the key swing factors, yet the compressed timeline and historical reliance on exceptional provenance keep the “No” side favored.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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