**Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in September tornado totals amid the transitional fall pattern, where reduced wind shear and instability typically limit activity to a 1991–2020 average of roughly 66 tornadoes.** With about 20 days remaining, current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk focused on damaging winds rather than tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Plains, consistent with climatology showing fewer supercell-favorable environments as the jet stream shifts. Differentiating the closely matched bins hinges on whether late-month setups produce typical scattered events or an outlier driven by Gulf moisture surges, tropical cyclone remnants (which historically spawn dozens in concentrated outbreaks), or an unusually strong low-level jet enhancing shear and CAPE. Historical extremes—from single-digit months to 295 in 2004—underscore the role of these episodic catalysts versus baseline conditions in tipping counts across the 25–124 range or beyond.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月美国龙卷风
2026年9月美国龙卷风
125个或更多 50%
少于25个 50%
50 - 74 50%
75 - 124 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少于25个
50%
25 - 49
49%
50 - 74
50%
75 - 124
50%
125个或更多
50%
125个或更多 50%
少于25个 50%
50 - 74 50%
75 - 124 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少于25个
$10 交易量
50%
25 - 49
$0 交易量
49%
50 - 74
$0 交易量
50%
75 - 124
$0 交易量
50%
125个或更多
$25 交易量
50%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in September tornado totals amid the transitional fall pattern, where reduced wind shear and instability typically limit activity to a 1991–2020 average of roughly 66 tornadoes.** With about 20 days remaining, current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk focused on damaging winds rather than tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Plains, consistent with climatology showing fewer supercell-favorable environments as the jet stream shifts. Differentiating the closely matched bins hinges on whether late-month setups produce typical scattered events or an outlier driven by Gulf moisture surges, tropical cyclone remnants (which historically spawn dozens in concentrated outbreaks), or an unusually strong low-level jet enhancing shear and CAPE. Historical extremes—from single-digit months to 295 in 2004—underscore the role of these episodic catalysts versus baseline conditions in tipping counts across the 25–124 range or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
交易量
$35结束日期
2026-10-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in September tornado totals amid the transitional fall pattern, where reduced wind shear and instability typically limit activity to a 1991–2020 average of roughly 66 tornadoes.** With about 20 days remaining, current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk focused on damaging winds rather than tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Plains, consistent with climatology showing fewer supercell-favorable environments as the jet stream shifts. Differentiating the closely matched bins hinges on whether late-month setups produce typical scattered events or an outlier driven by Gulf moisture surges, tropical cyclone remnants (which historically spawn dozens in concentrated outbreaks), or an unusually strong low-level jet enhancing shear and CAPE. Historical extremes—from single-digit months to 295 in 2004—underscore the role of these episodic catalysts versus baseline conditions in tipping counts across the 25–124 range or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$35结束日期
2026-10-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET**Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in September tornado totals amid the transitional fall pattern, where reduced wind shear and instability typically limit activity to a 1991–2020 average of roughly 66 tornadoes.** With about 20 days remaining, current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk focused on damaging winds rather than tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Plains, consistent with climatology showing fewer supercell-favorable environments as the jet stream shifts. Differentiating the closely matched bins hinges on whether late-month setups produce typical scattered events or an outlier driven by Gulf moisture surges, tropical cyclone remnants (which historically spawn dozens in concentrated outbreaks), or an unusually strong low-level jet enhancing shear and CAPE. Historical extremes—from single-digit months to 295 in 2004—underscore the role of these episodic catalysts versus baseline conditions in tipping counts across the 25–124 range or beyond.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题