**Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella drives low implied probabilities for a unilateral U.S. strike on Colombian soil.** The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced a formal military partnership, including U.S. Southern Command visits, intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition, a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and discussions of Plan Patriota 2.0. This follows periods of strain under the prior administration, including U.S. strikes on suspected drug vessels that killed over 200 people and prompted Colombian objections. Recent Colombian military actions against armed groups, such as ELN and FARC dissidents, have used U.S.-supplied drones with Washington’s support, while U.S. operations have focused on maritime interdiction rather than land targets inside Colombia. Trader consensus reflects these structural incentives for partnership over confrontation, with resolution hinging on any confirmed U.S.-initiated aerial, drone, or missile strike on Colombian territory by the market’s cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,191,715 交易量
2026-01-30
12月31日
17%
$2,191,715 交易量
12月31日
$1,114,500 交易量
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella drives low implied probabilities for a unilateral U.S. strike on Colombian soil.** The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced a formal military partnership, including U.S. Southern Command visits, intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition, a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and discussions of Plan Patriota 2.0. This follows periods of strain under the prior administration, including U.S. strikes on suspected drug vessels that killed over 200 people and prompted Colombian objections. Recent Colombian military actions against armed groups, such as ELN and FARC dissidents, have used U.S.-supplied drones with Washington’s support, while U.S. operations have focused on maritime interdiction rather than land targets inside Colombia. Trader consensus reflects these structural incentives for partnership over confrontation, with resolution hinging on any confirmed U.S.-initiated aerial, drone, or missile strike on Colombian territory by the market’s cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
交易量
$2,191,715结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella drives low implied probabilities for a unilateral U.S. strike on Colombian soil.** The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced a formal military partnership, including U.S. Southern Command visits, intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition, a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and discussions of Plan Patriota 2.0. This follows periods of strain under the prior administration, including U.S. strikes on suspected drug vessels that killed over 200 people and prompted Colombian objections. Recent Colombian military actions against armed groups, such as ELN and FARC dissidents, have used U.S.-supplied drones with Washington’s support, while U.S. operations have focused on maritime interdiction rather than land targets inside Colombia. Trader consensus reflects these structural incentives for partnership over confrontation, with resolution hinging on any confirmed U.S.-initiated aerial, drone, or missile strike on Colombian territory by the market’s cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$2,191,715结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ET**Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s newly inaugurated President Abelardo de la Espriella drives low implied probabilities for a unilateral U.S. strike on Colombian soil.** The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced a formal military partnership, including U.S. Southern Command visits, intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition, a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and discussions of Plan Patriota 2.0. This follows periods of strain under the prior administration, including U.S. strikes on suspected drug vessels that killed over 200 people and prompted Colombian objections. Recent Colombian military actions against armed groups, such as ELN and FARC dissidents, have used U.S.-supplied drones with Washington’s support, while U.S. operations have focused on maritime interdiction rather than land targets inside Colombia. Trader consensus reflects these structural incentives for partnership over confrontation, with resolution hinging on any confirmed U.S.-initiated aerial, drone, or missile strike on Colombian territory by the market’s cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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