Trader consensus on the low likelihood of US military draft authorization in 2026 stems from the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to reinstate conscription, despite the all-volunteer force structure in place since 1973. The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused on modernizing Selective Service registration to automatic processes effective December 2026, but this preparatory step does not confer induction authority, which requires separate statutory approval by Congress and the president. Bipartisan proposals to repeal the Selective Service System entirely further signal limited appetite for conscription. No major national security emergency or recruitment shortfall has prompted floor votes or executive directives on activation. Late developments such as a large-scale conflict escalation, acute personnel shortages across services, or an emergency supplemental bill could still shift probabilities before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$525,568 交易量
$525,568 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$525,568 交易量
$525,568 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the low likelihood of US military draft authorization in 2026 stems from the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to reinstate conscription, despite the all-volunteer force structure in place since 1973. The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused on modernizing Selective Service registration to automatic processes effective December 2026, but this preparatory step does not confer induction authority, which requires separate statutory approval by Congress and the president. Bipartisan proposals to repeal the Selective Service System entirely further signal limited appetite for conscription. No major national security emergency or recruitment shortfall has prompted floor votes or executive directives on activation. Late developments such as a large-scale conflict escalation, acute personnel shortages across services, or an emergency supplemental bill could still shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$525,568结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the low likelihood of US military draft authorization in 2026 stems from the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to reinstate conscription, despite the all-volunteer force structure in place since 1973. The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused on modernizing Selective Service registration to automatic processes effective December 2026, but this preparatory step does not confer induction authority, which requires separate statutory approval by Congress and the president. Bipartisan proposals to repeal the Selective Service System entirely further signal limited appetite for conscription. No major national security emergency or recruitment shortfall has prompted floor votes or executive directives on activation. Late developments such as a large-scale conflict escalation, acute personnel shortages across services, or an emergency supplemental bill could still shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$525,568结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETTrader consensus on the low likelihood of US military draft authorization in 2026 stems from the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to reinstate conscription, despite the all-volunteer force structure in place since 1973. The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused on modernizing Selective Service registration to automatic processes effective December 2026, but this preparatory step does not confer induction authority, which requires separate statutory approval by Congress and the president. Bipartisan proposals to repeal the Selective Service System entirely further signal limited appetite for conscription. No major national security emergency or recruitment shortfall has prompted floor votes or executive directives on activation. Late developments such as a large-scale conflict escalation, acute personnel shortages across services, or an emergency supplemental bill could still shift probabilities before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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