The solidly Republican lean of Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following incumbent Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jon Bonck at 92.5 percent. Bonck secured the nomination after winning a May 2026 runoff with endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but trails significantly in resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for shifts from unforeseen events such as candidate health issues or major national developments, though historical patterns in comparable Texas districts suggest limited volatility at this stage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$28,006 交易量
$28,006 交易量
2026-11-02
乔恩·邦克（共和党）
93%
梅丽莎·麦克多诺（民主党）
4%
$28,006 交易量
$28,006 交易量
2026-11-02
乔恩·邦克（共和党）
$17,956 交易量
93%
梅丽莎·麦克多诺（民主党）
$10,050 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican lean of Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following incumbent Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jon Bonck at 92.5 percent. Bonck secured the nomination after winning a May 2026 runoff with endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but trails significantly in resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for shifts from unforeseen events such as candidate health issues or major national developments, though historical patterns in comparable Texas districts suggest limited volatility at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$28,006结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican lean of Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following incumbent Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jon Bonck at 92.5 percent. Bonck secured the nomination after winning a May 2026 runoff with endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but trails significantly in resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for shifts from unforeseen events such as candidate health issues or major national developments, though historical patterns in comparable Texas districts suggest limited volatility at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$28,006结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETThe solidly Republican lean of Texas's 38th congressional district, an open seat following incumbent Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, underpins trader consensus favoring Republican nominee Jon Bonck at 92.5 percent. Bonck secured the nomination after winning a May 2026 runoff with endorsements from President Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising exceeding $1.5 million. Democrat Melissa McDonough advanced from her March primary but trails significantly in resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The November 3 general election timeline leaves room for shifts from unforeseen events such as candidate health issues or major national developments, though historical patterns in comparable Texas districts suggest limited volatility at this stage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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