Trader consensus at 97% against an arrest before 2027 reflects the absence of any active criminal indictment or credible charges against the former president, combined with Supreme Court precedent on immunity for official acts during his term. Recent declassifications and referrals targeting Obama-era officials have prompted investigations into subordinates but have not produced new evidence sufficient for DOJ action against Obama himself, with statute-of-limitations and evidentiary barriers repeatedly cited. Institutional norms, Secret Service protections, and the compressed timeline through early 2027 further constrain realistic pathways. Late developments such as unforeseen indictments or court rulings could theoretically shift odds, though no such proceedings are underway.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$21,920 交易量
$21,920 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$21,920 交易量
$21,920 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus at 97% against an arrest before 2027 reflects the absence of any active criminal indictment or credible charges against the former president, combined with Supreme Court precedent on immunity for official acts during his term. Recent declassifications and referrals targeting Obama-era officials have prompted investigations into subordinates but have not produced new evidence sufficient for DOJ action against Obama himself, with statute-of-limitations and evidentiary barriers repeatedly cited. Institutional norms, Secret Service protections, and the compressed timeline through early 2027 further constrain realistic pathways. Late developments such as unforeseen indictments or court rulings could theoretically shift odds, though no such proceedings are underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
交易量
$21,920结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus at 97% against an arrest before 2027 reflects the absence of any active criminal indictment or credible charges against the former president, combined with Supreme Court precedent on immunity for official acts during his term. Recent declassifications and referrals targeting Obama-era officials have prompted investigations into subordinates but have not produced new evidence sufficient for DOJ action against Obama himself, with statute-of-limitations and evidentiary barriers repeatedly cited. Institutional norms, Secret Service protections, and the compressed timeline through early 2027 further constrain realistic pathways. Late developments such as unforeseen indictments or court rulings could theoretically shift odds, though no such proceedings are underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$21,920结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETTrader consensus at 97% against an arrest before 2027 reflects the absence of any active criminal indictment or credible charges against the former president, combined with Supreme Court precedent on immunity for official acts during his term. Recent declassifications and referrals targeting Obama-era officials have prompted investigations into subordinates but have not produced new evidence sufficient for DOJ action against Obama himself, with statute-of-limitations and evidentiary barriers repeatedly cited. Institutional norms, Secret Service protections, and the compressed timeline through early 2027 further constrain realistic pathways. Late developments such as unforeseen indictments or court rulings could theoretically shift odds, though no such proceedings are underway.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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